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AFL – Round 7 in Review

Round 7 of the 2023 AFL season saw Richmond’s year hang by a thread after another upset defeat, while two key forwards shook up the Coleman Medal market.

Here’s how it looked for punters: 

Richmond’s season almost over

Is it season over for the Tigers? With just one win in seven rounds, it would appear so. A year that started so brightly, with high hopes that some big off-season recruits would propel them back in the AFL Top 4, has now fizzled and all but ended. In April.

Richmond ($1.41) again lacked the hunger that has typified their recent dynasty, and were sloppy in front of goal against an impressive Gold Coast Suns, who run out 24-point victors as $2.76 underdogs. The low-scoring clash finished 54 points under the pre-game total points line of 173.5, while the Suns prevailed in a 39-point swing on the pre-game line. It keeps their season alive at 3-4, but more importantly almost kills Richmond’s hopes. After a draw and win to kick off the 2023 AFL season, the Tigers have now lost five on the bounce. Starting the season as $1.22 Top 8 fancies with Palmerbet, Damien Hardwick’s side are now out to $3.20. “I’m the eternal optimist,” Hardwick said after Sunday’s game. His glass will need to remain half-full if they’re any hopes of returning to finals footy this year.

Big hauls shake up Coleman market

Such is the defensive structures of modern AFL footy, five goals is considered a ‘bag’ for a forward these days. Which makes Tom Hawkins’ (eight goals) and Charlie Curnow’s (nine goals) efforts in Round Seven all the more incredible. No player kicked nine goals in a single game throughout 2022, but Curnow’s effort against West Coast in Perth was a throwback to the heady key-forward days of the 80s.

The respective hauls have shaken up Palmerbet’s Coleman Medal market. Curnow’s nine takes his season tally to 30, level with Jeremy Cameron who kicked three in Geelong’s win over Essendon. It also saw him edge closer to Cameron ($1.83) as new favourite, shortening from $4.50 into $2.25. But it was Hawkins who was the real big mover. After kicking just five goals in the opening four rounds of the 2023 AFL season, the Cats star has bagged 17 majors in his last three. Hitting his straps, Hawkins moved from $41 into $21 (third-favourite) on the back of the huge performance. While still eight behind the leading duo, does the big Cat represent value given we’re less than a third of the way into the season?

Frontrunners put gap on chasers

We couldn’t recap Round 7 without touching on Collingwood. They’ve only gone and done it yet again.

After overhauling a 28-point final term deficit against Essendon on Anzac Day, the Pies ($1.72 pre-game) hauled in Adelaide’s ($2.06) 22-point last quarter lead on Sunday evening, sealing two incredible wins in the space of five days. The victory sees them again snatch back outright AFL Premiership favouritism with Palmerbet at $4.50, marginally ahead of Melbourne and Geelong at $5.00. As the markets reflect, the trio have formed a clear gap between the chasing back. In short time Geelong look back to their ominous best while Melbourne were at their ruthless best against North Melbourne on Saturday, prevailing by 93 points (42 points over the already hefty pre-game line). Brisbane ($7.00 flag chances) are circling, but it’s $12+ hopefuls beyond that. The Pies, Cats and Dees have already shown themselves as the sides to beat.

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