Round 4 of the 2021 AFL season saw the Swans, Dogs and Dees continue their unblemished start to the year, while the Pies stumbled yet again.

Here’s how it looked for punters: 

Dees humming

Melbourne secured a second upset win of the year to date with a strong victory over Geelong on Sunday. The win brings them to a 4-0 start — the first time they’ve done so for 27 years. From a markets perspective though, it’s brought them in even further. Starting the season as $2.50 finals hopes, Simon Goodwin’s side are already into $1.40 with Palmerbet.

Few expected Melbourne (who started $2.10 outsiders at the MCG) to start the season so strongly. After a horror 2019 and a 2020 that struggled to gather steam, they were also considered $21 AFL Premiership outsiders. Well, that’s already been slashed into $11 as the Dees are genuine flag hopes.

Pies wobbling

At the other end of the spectrum is Collingwood, who succumbed to a third loss despite starting heavy $1.23 favourites against the Giants. Nathan Buckley’s side aren’t playing the worst brand of footy, but this is a results business, and their start has been poor. The Pies, who started the season as $1.91 AFL Finals hopes, are already out to $3.00.

Scoring eases

We’ve spoken in recent weeks about the rise in scoring this season as a result of new changes brought in for the 2021 AFL season. But in Round 4, things somewhat petered out. The 180-point barrier was broken just once (St Kilda v West Coast, 184 total points). Slippery and blustery conditions in numerous clashes certainly didn’t help the cause, but it will be one to keep an eye on in weeks to come.


Another dominant performance by Melbourne’s Christian Petracca (36 disposals, 9 clearances, 2 goals) has seen him move into outright second-favourite for the 2021 Brownlow Medal. The midfield gun started the year at $13 but has now shifted into $8. Richmond’s Dustin Martin remains the outright favourite at $4.33.