Round 4 of the AFL season was a heart-stopper for punters, with four games decided by less than a kick. Also, the low scores continue. 

Here’s how it looked for punters: 

Low-score struggle

The most noticeable trend four rounds into the AFL season is defensive-minded, low-scoring footy. And it became more painstakingly obvious on the weekend, when only one of the nine games finished with a combined total of more than 130 points. ‘Total points’ lines continue to drop as the tight footy continues, and punters will likely be jumping on the ‘unders’. Just three of the nine games finished over the line – two of those scraping by. The only game to comfortably surpass the handicap was St Kilda’s upset win over Richmond, 15.3 (93) to 10.7 (67).

Flag hopes flounder

Speaking of the Tigers; their struggles continued on the weekend. In losing to St Kilda by 26 points (despite starting as strong $1.45 favourites with Palmerbet), their flag hopes have drifted further, from $6.50 to $8. Also, their hopes of claiming the AFL minor premiership (which were at $4.20 before the season re-start) are now out to $13.

And they aren’t the only ones struggling. West Coast have now drifted even further in futures markets after their horror show at Metricon on Saturday afternoon, where they finished 48-point losers at the hands of an impressive Port Adelaide. Adam Simpson’s side – just three weeks ago $6 premiership hopes – are now out to $14 in Palmerbet’s AFL flag market.

Dominant Charlies

A big reason for Port Adelaide’s resurgence has been down to the form of key forward Charlie Dixon. The powerful big man bagged six goals against the Eagles on the Gold Coast (taking his season tally to an AFL-leading 11), and in doing so has come into $4.50 favouritism in the Coleman Medal market. And he wasn’t the only Charlie to further his Coleman claims on the weekend. Brisbane’s Charlie Cameron bagged two to take his season tally to 9 and move into equal-second favourite with Richmond’s Tom Lynch at $6.

Remarkable Rowell

We wrote last week that number one draft pick Matt Rowell had shifted into almost unbackable odds in the AFL Rising Star market. Well, that even further solidified on the weekend, and he’s now into $1.01 to claim that prize.

But it’s in another market that he’s making huge headway – and that’s the Brownlow Medal. The prospect of a first year player claiming the coveted award seems outrageous. But each week it seems less and less so, such is the incredible performances of the young Sun. He dominated again on the weekend, claiming an (equal) game-high 20 disposals, and booting two goals. He’s now an $8 third-favourite for the medal. He couldn’t, could he?

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