Round 15 of the AFL season saw a host of upsets that showed, yet again, that no result is safe in an even-natured year of footy.

Here’s how it looked for punters: 

Underdogs deliver

Of the nine games over the course of Round 15, four were won by a considerable underdog in Palmerbet’s head-to-head market. They include: Carlton ($3.64 pre-game), Western Bulldogs ($3.42), North Melbourne ($3.23) and Essendon ($2.52). The biggest of these was saved for last. On Sunday evening, Carlton gave its long-suffering faithful the best moment of an otherwise dour season – a Marc Murphy goal with 35 seconds on the clock sealed just their third win. Cue scenes in Perth.

New coach bounce

Two of those upset wins were under interim coaches – Rhyce Shaw at North Melbourne and David Teague at Carlton. Both have had a huge impact since taking over their beleaguered clubs (Shaw three wins in four, Teague two wins in three). In beating second-placed Collingwood by an incredible 44 points, the Roos are suddenly – almost inexplicably – back in the finals hunt. After round nine they were $18 to finish in the top eight with Palmerbet, but after Saturday night’s result find themselves just one game out of the AFL finals’ spots and into $6.50. A sneaky chance?

In a similar vein, at 1-10 the Blues found themselves a short $1.35 in Palmerbet’s ‘least season wins market’. But the two wins under Teague, which has brought them level with Gold Coast on 12 points, sees that market change considerably. The Blues are now $5 in that market, with the Suns into $1.20.

Log-jam for finals

That loss, at home nonetheless, has put a square dent in Freo’s AFL finals hopes. Before round 15 Ross Lyon’s side were $1.85 to make the finals. The last-gasp loss sees them now out to $2.68. Similarly for Port Adelaide, who went down to the Dogs in the wet, their hopes for September action were hit in what was pencilled down as four points. Ken Hinkley’s side have lengthened from $1.60 to $2.25.

The early market has the Dockers as $3.18 outsiders in the aforementioned Derby 50.

Brownlow watch

We have a new AFL Brownlow Medal favourite. With Carlton’s Patrick Cripps on the sidelines, Tim Kelly’s 33-disposal, two-goal effort against Adelaide – a performance that will almost certainly get him two or three votes – has moved into outright $3.25 favourite. The Cats midfield star is ahead of his nearest rivals at $5 (Lachie Neale and Nat Fyfe) with Palmerbet.

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