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Round 12 in Review

Round 12 of the 2023 AFL season saw goals galore, the Suns keep their season alive, and Collingwood hit an elite modern mark.

Here’s how it looked for punters: 

Goals galore in score frenzy

At this stage of an AFL season, scores can tend to tighten up. Approaching the halfway point of the year, grounds get heavier and teams work each other out. And that looked every bit the case on Friday night, when Melbourne ($1.39) prevailed over Carlton ($2.92) in one of the season’s drabbest prime time matches. With a 8.13 (61) to 6.8 (44) scoreline, the points total of 105 was a whopping 57.5 points below the pre-game line. It turned out, though, that this was the stark anomaly in an otherwise free-scoring round.

Headlined by a goal-fest in Adelaide that saw the Power and Hawks combine for an incredible +76.5 on the pre-game line, we saw score frenzies throughout the weekend. All six matches following Friday night finished above the pre-game line. Here’s how AFL Round 12 looked in that market:

  • Melbourne 61 vs 44 Carlton (57.5 points UNDER pre-game total points line)
  • Port Adelaide 151 vs 96 Hawthorn (76.5 points OVER line)
  • West Coast 57 vs 120 Collingwood (5.5 points OVER line)
  • Western Bulldogs 75 vs 97 Geelong (5.5 points OVER line)
  • Gold Coast Suns 112 vs 87 Adelaide Crows (38.5 points OVER line)
  • GWS Giants 104 vs 110 Richmond (48.5 points OVER line)
  • Essendon 105 vs 99 North Melbourne (32.5 points OVER line)

Lights on in Suns’ season

Before Gold Coast travelled to Darwin a fortnight ago, their season was well and truly on the line. In fact, you could argue it was the most important two weeks in coach Stuart Dew’s career. At 4-6, the prospect was of being 6-6 and in the AFL Top 8 hunt, or 4-8 and season well and truly over. As it is, they’ve taken the former path — and they’re well and truly in the hunt for their first ever finals series.

The latest win, as equal $1.90 hopes alongside Adelaide, was the most impressive of the lot. At 35 point down early in the piece, nine unanswered goals either side of half-time before running out 25-point victors showed just how damaging Dew’s young side can be. More importantly, it showed just how rabid and hungry they are around the contest.

Last week Jack Lukosius booted five at $91 pre-game with Palmerbet. Against the Crows, the crafty former No.1 AFL Draft pick repeated the dose, this time at $29. The win keeps them in the finals chances, at $3.70 with Palmerbet — in from $16 after Round 5.

History on dominant Pies’ side

Another week, another dominant win for ladder-leading Collingwood. While they were at one stage tested by wooden spoon favourites West Coast ($10 H2H pre-game), Craig McRae’s men ($1.04) — as they’ve done to many sides before — put the foot on the gas late to run out 63-point winners, getting the job done for line punters (-55.5 pre-game). The victory leaves them 11-1, and an incredible four games clear inside the Top 4.

It also leaves them in very, very good company. Of all the 14 clubs to have sat at 11-1 or better in the AFL era, 11 have gone on to make the Grand Final. Currently, the Pies are $1.85 with Palmerbet to be there one the last Saturday in September. The win in Perth also solidifies Collingwood’s buffer in the flag market. The Pies are now at $3.00, with a genuine gap to second-best Brisbane at $5.50.

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