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Round 11 in Review

Round 11 of the 2023 AFL season saw upsets galore, Geelong’s yoyo year continue, and an unlikely bag from a Suns young gun. 

Here’s how it looked for punters: 

Upsets all-round

It was an undeniably tough round for punters and tipsters up and down the country.

Six of nine games fell to the outsiders, although not all upsets were created equal. It kicked off with the most marginal of underdogs, the Swans ($2.03), getting up over a sad and sorry Carlton on Friday night. Next it was the young Hawks ($4.20) in a boilover over St Kilda, before Fremantle ($3.02) reprised last year’s upset over Melbourne at the MCG to repeat the dose. The next clash, however, took the cake. Despite winning their past two AFL games at GMHBA Stadium, GWS ($6.50) were expected to be belted against Geelong this time around. But they had other ideas, saluting despite starting at +41.5. Rounding out the upsetting round was Gold Coast’s $2.60 win over the Dogs, before Adelaide ($2.15) delivered in a beauty at home to the rampaging Lions.

One upset, though, had the biggest impact on the shape of 2023…

Up-and-down Cats floundering

An incredible stat to emerge out of Round 11 wasn’t pretty reading for the Cats. It went like this: In Joel Selwood’s entire Cats career, the side lost three in a row just once. Since the Geelong legend retired following AFL Premiership success in 2022, however, they’ve done it TWICE. The latest loss, to the Giants despite starting heavy $1.10 favourites, was damning. Unsurprisingly, it was Toby Greene who delivered for GWS, booting four in his 200th AFL game, a marker that was $7.25 pre-game with Palmerbet.

Defeat for Geelong continued a rollercoaster season. Three losses to kick off the season saw them lengthen from $5.50 premiership favourites out to $10. Five wins on the bounce, however, got their year back on track. And it did so in the flag market too, back in to $5.00. Now, however, they’re back out to $10. And coach Chris Scott seemingly has a lot of work to do.

Suns gun bags match-winning five

Since being used in every part of the ground in his first four AFL seasons, Jack Lukosius has officially found his spot. In pre-season the former No.2 draft pick said it was “where I want to play”, and while making a solid start the canny operator had only kicked over two goals once in a game to date. On Saturday evening, though, he had a night out. Lukosius banged through five majors, including all four goals (from either the Suns or the Western Bulldogs) in an electric second quarter. His effort delivered an incredible $91 for punters who backed the 22-year-old to bag five. More importantly, though, it single-handedly delivered a crucial $2.60 upset win. And it keeps the Suns in with a sniff in 2023. With four wins in their last six games a first-ever AFL finals appearance for Gold Coast would appear unlikely, but after 11 games they sit just one game outside the Top 8.

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