A host of AFL players remain a chance to snatch the Brownlow Medal in season 2019. We look at how the market has tightened in recent weeks. 

Ladies and gentlemen, we have a new Brownlow Medal favourite. After a stunningly consistent year – one in which he has averaged over 30 disposals per game – Brisbane’s Lachie Neale has shot into outright favouritism with Palmerbet. The ball magnet has shifted into $3.50, overtaking Geelong’s Tim Kelly (now $4) to be the fancied pick amongst punters. But it’s not just this pair who are considered a chance to win the AFL’s most coveted individual award. In fact, there’s a host of players biting at the heals of both Neale and Kelly,. Could it be one of the closest run counts in recent years?

Whittling away the price

When Neale moved from Fremantle to Brisbane in the off-season he was expected to continue as a strong ball-winner, but few expected his start to the season. In the first four rounds, he compiled three 40+ disposal games. After round four, he was $4.60 second-favourite with Palmerbet. Since then, his price has wavered just slightly owing to his consistency.

Kelly, on the other hand started the season at a juicy $71 with Palmerbet but after round 14 had moved all the way into $3.25 favourite. A few quiet weeks, however, has seen him lengthen sightly. Kelly has averaged under 20 disposals in the last three weeks. Can he regain the form that saw him into favourite?

At the heels

A number of players sit just behind Neale and Kelly in the race for the 2019 Brownlow Medal. The first is another Geelong midfielder, Patrick Dangerfield, currently at $5. Similarly to Neale, Danger started the season on fire, then had a somewhat lean trot (well, by his lofty standards at least) before going bang again in recent weeks. His 32-disposal, seven-tackle, one-goal effort against the Saints in AFL round 17 saw him shorten from $8 to $6, and a further 27 touches on the weekend against the Hawks (albeit in a losing effort) saw him shorten again into $5.

Sitting just behind Dangerfield is Nat Fyfe, who very much remains in the mix at $7. Ironically, Fyfe started the AFL season as equal-favourite at $7, and has remained in-and-around that price for most of the season. At $8.50 is inspirational Carlton skipper Patrick Cripps who was as short as $4 after a huge 38-disposal effort in round 12. But a fortnight out with injury, plus a couple of quieter weeks, has pushed Cripps slightly back out. With the Blues back in form, however, and five games to go, there’s still plenty of time for him to push his case.

Best roughie?

It might be a stretch to even call him a ‘roughie’, but at $13 is Marcus Bontempelli the best price currenty on offer? The Dogs’ gun has had a superb AFL season and, while he has other ball magnets around him in Jack Macrae and Josh Dunkley who may steal votes from him, his class by foot sets him apart. One to watch in Palmerbet’s Brownlow market.

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