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AFL Tips & Preview- Round 9

The 2023 AFL premiership rolls into Round 9 with a Friday night showdown between the Tigers and Cats and will include a tough clash between the out-of-form Swans and Dockers before finishing with the Magpies taking on the Giants.

Richmond Tigers vs Geelong Cats

History: Played 201: Cats 107, Tigers 91, Draw 3

Last meeting: Round 15, 2022- Cats 13.11 (89) def Tigers 13.8 (86) at MCG

Team News: The in-form Cats will, unfortunately, have to make two changes this Friday. The two forced changes are Patrick Dangerfield (hamstring) and Brad Close (suspension). However, youngster Sam De Koning is on the mend from facial surgery and may return to the team. Originally named in the 26-man squad against the Crows, Cooper Whyte and Oisin Mullin are close to entering the team with injuries. Trent Cotchin (rested) should be ready to go for the Tigers and is set to replace Noah Cumberland, who has fallen out of favour. Ivan Sold0 (foot) was subbed off and will face fitness tests until the game, as will Tylar Young (leg). If they are rubbed out, Hugo Ralphsmith and Tyler Sonsie seem the obvious replacements.

What We Like: An easy bet is for Jeremy Cameron to continue his eight-game streak of kicking three or more goals ($1.33). While unlikely, his forward partner Tom Hawkins is an outside chance to score four or more at $3.70. Norm Smith Medalist Isaac Smith always seems to have great performances against the Tigers, and expect Friday to be no different. In his last ten games against the club, he has managed 20+ disposals ($1.54). His opposition will have to rely on Tim Taranto, who has recorded 30+ disposals in his last four games. At $1.85, he is a solid shout to continue this streak.

Final Thoughts: Moving away from the powerful forward duo of Jeremy Cameron or Tom Hawkins to kick three or more goals, the Cats have won five of their past straight games. In front of the magical MCG, the Cats will be too strong against an inconsistent Tigers squad. Add in the Tigers have a growing injury list, and Geelong will welcome back Sam De Koning to their already impenetrable defence. The best bet is to cover the line with Geelong -20.5 at $1.90.

Best Bet: Line (-20.5)- Geelong -20.5 @ $1.90

West Coast Eagles vs Gold Coast Suns

History: Played 15: Eagles 10, Suns 4, Draw 1

Last meeting: Round 20, 2022- Suns 16.11 (107) def Eagles 16.8 (104)

Team News: The Eagles will need to replace Jai Culley, although players are slowly returning from the injury list for the club. Samo Petrevski-Seton (quad), Brady Hough (hamstring), and Campbell Chesser (knee) are just three players that may return. Zane Trew will likely be elevated from the substitute role into the starting 22. Defender Harry Edwards is also pushing the clock after incurring a wrist injury. The Suns will have to wait on two players (Ben Ainsworth and Nick Holman) to see if they need to change the side. Ainsworth suffered a cocked thigh, and Holman injured his foot the previous weekend. 

What We Like: As Suns star midfielder Touk Miller has been sitting on the sidelines, youngster Noah Anderson has stepped up in his absence. Anderson has recorded 25+ disposals in the Suns last seven matches and is paying $1.26. Eagles forward Jack Darling will be hoping to bring a glimmer of hope to the club with his goal-kicking. Darling has kicked 2+ goals ($2.15) in his last four home games against the Suns. Also, expect the Suns to cover the line – Gold Coast -21.5 – as they have done in four of their last five games against West Coast at $1.90.

Final Thoughts: Unfortunately, it has not been the best time to be a West Coast Eagles fan. Entering the clash against the Gold Coast Suns, the Eagles have lost their last 15 of 16 matches. This includes their last six matches being lost by a margin bigger than 40 points. As Jai Culley is another name added to their already large injury list, expect the Suns to win by 40+ at $3.05.

Best Bet: Margin- Gold Coast 40+ @ $3.05

Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers

History: Played 39: Swans 21, Dockers 17, Draw 1

Last meeting: Round 18, 2022- Swans 11.16 (82) def Dockers 9.11 (65) at Perth Stadium

Team News: Eager to regain last season’s form, the Swans and John Longmire will have tough decisions to make with his ruckman. Peter Landhams (neck) has passed a fitness test, and Tom Hickey has been amazing in the VFL. Hayden McLean may also gain a spot due to the Dockers’ height of Luke Jackson and Sean Darcy. Marc Sheather (knee) will be unavailable and miss the game. An unchanged team is expected for the Dockers, but they may decide to rest or keep ex-skipper Nat Fyfe as the sub. Fyfe returned to the first team last week and pulled up well after the game. If Fyfe moves into the starting 22, a tall or medium forward is expected to make way. Lachie Schultz (AC joint) is also set to play after recovering well throughout the week.

What We Like: The Sydney Swans will head back home against a Fremantle Dockers side that struggles away from Perth. Winless from their past six games in Sydney, the Dockers have been terribly inconsistent this season, while the Swans showed great signs against the Magpies last weekend. Sydney is $1.31 to win in the head-to-head market. After a strong performance last week, Errol Gulden is looking to continue his ways and has recorded 20+ disposals in Sydney’s last seven matches ($1.37). With the controversy surrounding Lance Franklin, expect him to come out of the blocks. He has also scored 3+ goals in the Swans’ last three against the Dockers at the SCG. Franklin is paying $2.85 to repeat these performances.

Final Thoughts: Medium defender Jake Lloyd always seems to play his very best when it comes to facing the Fremantle Dockers. The endurance ball magnet has registered over 25+ disposals in each of the Swans’ last seven games against the Fremantle Dockers. Although he averages a tad under 25 touches a game with 23.8 for the season, Lloyd can be easily expected to get the two extra disposals with no ease. Lloyd is paying $1.94 to register above 25 disposals.

Best Bet: To Get 25 or More Disposals- Jake Lloyd @ $1.94

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Port Adelaide Power

History: Played 38: Kangaroos 22, Power 16

Last meeting: Round 9, 2022- Power 17.13 (115) def Kangaroos 6.10 (46)

Team News: The Kangaroos have plenty of decisions to make this week as five players will return from stints on the sidelines, and no injuries or suspensions to last week’s team. Callum Coleman-Jones (concussion) and Tom Powell (ankle) are the two most possible inclusions after recovering from injuries. The Kangaroos will also have Josh Goater, George Wardlaw and Aiden Bonar as players they could recall. The Power is unlikely to make any changes, apart from the suspension of Junior Rioli. Rioli’s replacement should be Lachie Jones, while Kane Farrell could return after two weeks with a fractured cheekbone.

What We Like: Unfortunately for the Kangaroos, they have lost their last four matches at Blundstone Arena by a margin of 40 points. Expect no different in the Jason Horne-Francis reunion match, where the youngster will face his old team for the very first time. Blundstone Arena is second nature to Kangaroos veteran Ben Cunnington who has managed 25+ disposals in his last four games at the ground ($2.85). The same can be said for Cameron Zurhaar, he has kicked 2+ goals in eight of his last nine in Tasmania ($2.12). With all eyes on Horne-Francis, another rookie is set to take control- Harry Sheezel. Sheezel has registered 30+ disposals in six of the Kangaroo’s last seven games, expect him to do the same at $2.20.

Final Thoughts: The Kangaroos have won two games this season and shown promise, but they will be no match for Port Adelaide. The Power have not lost to the Kangaroos since 2019 and have won five on the trot this season. While the Kangaroos have lost 23 of their last 24 games against teams ranked higher than them on the ladder. In the Jason Horne-Francis reunion match, expect the Power to win by a blowout of 40+ points at $2.25.

Best Bet: Margin- Port Adelaide 40+ @ $2.25

Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons

History: Played 168: Hawks, 87, Demons 80, Draw 1

Last meeting: Round 7, 2022- Demons 13.13 (91) def Hawks 11.15 (81) at MCG

Team News: Hawks midfielder Josh Ward (foot) has been ruled out of the clash through injury. In his place, there are many options the Hawks could decide to go with Cam Mackenzie on the top of the list. Mackenzie has had consecutive 30 disposal games after being dropped. Tyler Brockman will also be unavailable due to suspension. Cooper Stephens and Sam Butler are set to be considered for the side. Their opponents, the Demons, got through last week’s match unscathed, although Jacob van Rooyen will miss the game, having been suspended. Ben Brown is the likely replacement but hasn’t played at top love since Round 3. Christian Salem has recovered from a knee injury but is set to go through the VFL.

What We Like: Despite the head-to-head outcome favouring the Demons to a large degree, a flurry of disposals and goals can be expected during the game. Having kicked 1+ goal in the Demons’ last nine games, Alex Neal-Bullen should keep his streak alive and is paying $1.46 for anytime goalscorer. Another Demon forward to watch is small forward Kade Chandler. Chandler has registered 3+ goals in his last three at the MCG ($3.90 for 3+ goals). The return of Max Gawn, it has had a positive effect on Brodie Grundy, who is playing more as a forward-ruck. Grundy has managed two goals in Melbourne’s last two games and is expected to make it three games in a row with 2+ goals at $4.20.

Final Thoughts: Get ready for a monster win for the Melbourne Demons. One of the best-attacking teams and highest-scoring teams in the competition, the Demons are looking to bounce back after their loss last weekend. Losing nine of their last ten games, including a smashing by the Fremantle Dockers last week, expect the bad results to continue if you’re a Hawks fan. Melbourne to win by a margin of 40+ is the safest bet of the game, if not the entire round, at $1.78.

Best Bet: Margin- Melbourne 40+ @ $1.78 

Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Bombers

History: Played 35: Lions 17, Bombers 17, Draw 1

Last meeting: Round 17, 2022- Bombers 15.10 (100) def Lions 13.12 (90) at Gabba

Team News: The Lions will be awaiting the status of Dayne Zorko (hamstring) after he missed last week. Other than Zorko, the club will keep the same team after no players went down with injuries. The Bombers must exclude Jordan Ridley (concussion) in a massive blow for their away trip. The duo of Alwyn Davey Jnr and Nick Hind could also be dropped after poor performances last week. The Bombers could on bringing in Kaine Baldwin or Rhett Montgomerie for Ridley. In comparison, Nick Bryan and Will Snelling are the best options for replacing the underperforming duo.

What We Like: 

Brisbane are heavy favourites going into the match, at $1.25 on the head-to-head market, while the Bombers are underdogs but could surprisingly produce a win at $4.00. In a surprising statistic, each of the last six teams to face Carlton has failed to cover the line in the next match. Thus, expect Essendon at $1.90 to be a safe bet.

Final Thoughts: Dylan Shiel has had an amazing start to the season and manages to always come up firing against the Brisbane Lions. The Bombers superstar has accumulated 25+ disposals in each of his last eight games against the Lions. Although Essendon is considered an underdog, Shiel should be easily able to extend his streak of 25+ disposals to nine at $2.65.

Best Bet: To Get 25 or More Disposals- Dylan Shiel @ $2.65

Carlton Blues vs Western Bulldogs

History: Played 151: Blues 90, Bulldogs 57, Draw 4

Last meeting: Round 2, 2022- Blues 16.6 (102) def Bulldogs 13.12 (90) at Docklands

Team News: The Blues are set to recall wingman Matt Cottrell, who is returning from a foot injury. They could also bring Tom De Koning (concussion) and Matt Owies into the side. The former is a definite if he passes concussion protocols, whilst the latter kicked three goals and had 17 disposals in the VFL. The Bulldogs will lose key midfielder Adam Treloar, and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan is another in doubt for the match. In their place, Hayden Crozier (26 disposals, 13 marks) and Toby McLean (25 disposals, five clearances) may come in after strong performances in the VFL. Sam Darcy could also enter after missing last week due to illness.

What We Like: It is hard to go past Bulldogs midfielder Jack Macrae considering Treloar’s omission from the squad. Macrae has recorded 25+ disposals in 53 of the Dogs’ last 57 games and needs to have a big game if they are to get the win against the Blues. Macrae is paying $1.31. The line is another area to go. Carlton has covered the line in its past six matches against the Bulldogs and is paying a bargain price of $1.90.

Final Thoughts: With both teams even with star players across all parts of the midfield, a nail-biting game is expected and will go down to the wire. Although the head-to-head market may be tricky to bet on, the same cannot be said for the line. The Blues have covered the line in each of its last six games against the Dogs. Thus, it is an easy bet to have them cover the line at $1.90.

Best Bet: Line (-1.5)- Carlton 1.5 @ $1.90

Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints

History: Played 47: Crows 29, Saints 17, Draw 1

Last meeting: Round 10, 2022- Saints 14.6 (90) def Crows 9.15 (69) at Adelaide Oval

Team News: Key defender Nick Murray (concussion) will be a big exclusion for the Crows. The Crows can decide on many options to take his place in the side, with the likeliest being Josh Worrell – who is coming back from injury-, Patrick Parnell (26 disposals, ten marks in SANFL) or Andrew McPherson (29 disposals, 11 marks in SANFL). The Saints will wish for a big inclusion in Max King- however, he could be chosen to return via the VFL. Other than King, no more changes are set to happen.

What We Like: The Crows at $1.60 are favourites, but the Saints ($2.34) should not be counted out on the head-to-head market. Ex-Swan Jordan Dawson has made Adelaide Oval his home, achieving 25+ disposals in his last six games at home and is paying $1.54. Another Adelaide favourite, Darcy Fogarty, to kick 3+ goals is a steal at $3.00. Whenever the Crows are considered the favourites, the forward has kicked 3+ goals the last five times.

Final Thoughts: In what is set to be a blockbuster clash between two in-form teams, the Crows are favourites due to playing at home and the Saints narrowly getting over the line last weekend. In their last 17-day matches against each other, the favourite has won. Although the Crows should get the four points, the margin will end up in the 1-39 range. Adelaide, to win by 1-39, is paying $2.20.

Best Bet: Margin- Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.20 

Collingwood Magpies vs GWS Giants

History: Played 13: Magpies 7, Giants 6

Last meeting: Round 15, 2022- Magpies 11.22 (88) def Giants 12.5 (77) at MCG

Team News: The first-place Magpies will have a big decision on their mind whether or not to include Nathan Kreuger in the starting 23. Kreuger missed last week due to rib damage but is fit to go for this weekend. Fin Macrae is also pushing for a spot with another great VFL performance- 26 disposals, 11 tackles, and eight clearances. The Giants will be giving midfielder-forward Toby Greene (ankle) every chance to recover before the game after he was a late withdrawal on Saturday night. Ryan Angwin (ankle) and Phil Davis (groin) are in the same situation and could return to the team.

What We Like: Unbeatable at home, the Magpies have won 15 of their last 16 at the magical MCG. After multiple strong performances with the ball this season, Nick Daicos is set to get back to his best after being tagged last weekend. Daicos has had 32+ disposals in four of his last five at the G’. It is easy to see him record 30+ touches at $1.54. The MCG’s favourite son (Jamie Elliot) is another great shout for his goal-kicking. Elliot has kicked 2+ goals in his last 10 games at the MCG and is paying $1.84 for another 2+ goals. The margin market is another way to go, with the Pies paying $2.35 to win by 1-39. 14 of the last 16 games at the G’ have occurred by this margin.

Final Thoughts: The Magpies are complete favourites, sitting on top of the ladder with 7-1, while the Giants have lost five of their last seven- one victory coming against a depleted Sydney Swans line-up. While the Magpies sit as favourites, the underdog has covered the line in the last nine matches between the two inter-state clubs. Sitting at $1.90, the line in favour of GWS is the best way to go.

Best Bet: Line (33.5)- GWS 33.5 @$1.90


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