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AFL Tips & Preview- Round 7

The 2023 AFL premiership rolls into Round 7 with a Friday night showdown between the Saints and Power and will include the Sydney Derby before finishing with the Crows taking on the Magpies.

St Kilda Saints vs Port Adelaide Power

History: Played 34: Power 23, Saints 11

Last meeting: Round 7, 2022- Power 5.13 (43) def Saints 4.18 (42) at Cazaly’s Stadium

Team News: Ken Hinkley will lose three players, with Todd Marshall (concussion), Kane Farrell (jaw) and Tom Jonas (suspension) all unavailable. Charlie Dixon will race against the clock to return, whereas Mitch Georgiades (ACL) won’t be seen for the remainder of the season. Despite the Saints not occurring any injuries, Jack Billings (22 disposals, 7 marks, 3 goals) and Jack Bytel (39 disposals, 9 clearances) have put their name in the hat to be selected after great performances in the VFL.

What We Like: The two teams will be hoping to continue their winning ways on Friday. After an impressive victory over Carlton last week, the Saints are favourites at $1.47, although the Power at $2.64 could be considered a possibility as an outside bet. Another area to look at is the total points category. Both sides post a great defence, meaning Under 156.5 points for $1.88 would be a good choice. They have gone under the points in seven of the Saints’ last eight games at Marvel.

Final Thoughts: Expect St Kilda to walk away as winners against Port Adelaide for the second time in their past 13 games. The Saints are favourites to win the match due to multiple injuries to the Power in key positions and are sitting first with five wins to their name to begin the season. Despite this, Port Adelaide is coming off three consecutive wins, with their last being by 40 points against the Eagles. Thus, expect it to be a close game, with the Saints getting the four points. The best bet is to take St Kilda 1-24 in the winning margin section at $3.10.

Best Bet: Winning Margin- St Kilda 1-24 @ S3.10

Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle Dockers

History: Played 32: Lions 16, Dockers 16

Last meeting: Round 12, 2022- Dockers 15.9 (99) def Lions 13.7 (85) at Perth Stadium

Team News: Andrew Brayshaw (knee) is in doubt for the Dockers after failing to get through their main training session. With no other injuries, Neil Erasmus has been pushing on the door to play his first game this season. Sam Switkowski and Heath Chapman both face fitness tests for their calves, while Nat Fyfe is slowly preparing to return. It is hard to see the Lions make any changes this week after winning three straight games and no players receiving injuries.

What We Like: There is plenty to like from a Brisbane standpoint, but the same can’t be said for the Dockers, who are set to be without their best player in Andrew Brayshaw (knee). While Fremantle is likely to stay in the game, a bet of Brisbane 1-39 at $2.45 is a good option. You can also expect Josh Dunkley ($1.71) and Lachie Neale ($2.08) to get 25+ and 30+ disposals. While the Docker midfield may have been strong last year, the loss of Blake Acres and David Mundy has unsettled their midfield.

Final Thoughts: Just like the last round, jumping on the Charlie Cameron bandwagon is best. The Brisbane forward has kicked 17 goals in the past three weeks, with a season-high of seven against the Giants last round. Paying $2.35, it is a near certainty that Cameron will bag at least three if not more. The Dockers have struggled to contain opposing forwards, allowing 319 points in the past three weeks.

Best Bet: To Score 3 or More Goals- Charlie Cameron @ $2.35

Sydney Swans vs GWS Giants

History: Played 24: Swans 15, Giants 9

Last meeting: Round 22, 2022- Swans 17.10 (112) def Giants 5.9 (39) at SCG

Team News: The injury woes continue for the Swans, with Robbie Fox (concussion) and Matt Roberts (knee) out for the derby clash. The trio of Lance Franklin (knee), Dane Rampe (neck) and Tom McCartin (concussion) are expected to train this week but are clouded in doubt for the game. Angus Sheldrick may finally get consideration after 39 disposals, 9 clearances and 2 goals in the VFL. The Giants have also faced an injury crisis, forced to make three changes this week. Adam Kennedy (ACL), Callan Ward (suspension) and Sam Taylor (hamstring) will all be out. In their place, the best options for GWS to choose from include Leek Aleer, Callum Brown, and Jake Riccardi. Midfielder Tom Green will return from suspension.

What We Like: The Swans are surprisingly considered favourites in the annual Sydney Derby despite a growing injury list. GWS is a good shout to win at $4.30, especially considering the Swans will have no tall defenders if Dane Rampe can’t return. Continuing his goal-scoring prowess last round, Toby Greene ($1.91) is set to kick two or more goals, while the height of Jesse Hogan ($1.92) will play to his advantage and will take advantage of the short Swans defenders to kick two or more. On the other side, Tom Papley should be able to kick two or more goals at $1.83, while roaming midfielder-forward Errol Gulden will be hoping to make the Sydney Derby his own. Gulden is paying $4.90 for two or more goals and $2.50 for 25+ disposals.

Final Thoughts: The outcome of the match may be hard to predict due to the uncertainty of who will be playing. The total goals for the Giants are a totally different story. As Sydney has no tall defenders up to full fitness, expect the Giants to take control in the forward 50. The best bet covering this line is GWS’s total goals over +8.5 at $1.72.

Best Bet: GWS Total Goals O/U 8.5- Over +8.5 @ $1.72

Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn Hawks

History: Played 166: Hawks 84, Bulldogs 80, Draw 2

Last meeting: Round 23, 2022- Bulldogs 12.15 (87) def Hawks 10.4 (64) at York Park

Team News: The Bulldogs will lose star midfielder Tom Liberatore (concussion) but no one else. His likely replacements include; Buku Khamis, Mitch Hannan and Hayden Crozier. Crozier missed the Gather Round due to a back injury but returned to the VFL with 17 disposals. The Hawks will receive back Will Day (suspension) but will lose Max Lynch (concussion). Lloyd Meek is expected to be considered for selection after being dropped. After being managed last week, Josh Ward is set to return, and Mitch Lewis is on track to play his first game this season after overcoming an ACL sprain.

What We Like: The Dogs are so close to returning to the top eight picture, in what will become a reality if they defeat the Hawks. Luke Beveridge will be hoping to receive a great game out of stars Marcus Bontempelli, Adam Treloar and Jack Macrae. The midfield trio should run wild against an inexperienced Hawks midfield six. Bontempelli is $1.67 for 25+ disposals, while Treloar and Macrae are paying $1.85 and $1.95 for 30+ disposals. A Bulldogs win is a safe bet, but the margin could depend on how far the Hawks stay in the game, with 1-39 at $2.15 and 40+ at $2.55.

Final Thoughts: Boasting a younger and more developing team than other clubs in the competition, the Hawks have continually been let down by their second-half performances, especially in the last quarter. Even if they remain competitive for the first half, don’t expect it to continue. Due to this reason, the best choice is to focus your bets on the second half. The best bet is for Western Bulldogs to score over 47.5 points in the second half at $1.87.

Best Bet: WB Total Points- 2nd Half Over +47.5 @ $1.87

Melbourne Demons vs North Melbourne Kangaroos

History: Played 165: Demons 87, Kangaroos 77, Draw 1

Last meeting: Round 10, 2022- Demons 14.16 (100) def Kangaroos 8.5 (53) at Docklands

Team News: The Kangaroos will await a fitness test for their co-captain, Jy Simpken. AFL No.4 draft pick George Wardlaw could receive his AFL debut this round in his place. For the Demons, Ben Brown is unlikely to return, with Simon Goodwin insisting he will spend another week in the VFL. Charlie Spargo will also remain out after experiencing ongoing concussion symptoms. The Demons are set to make no changes.

What We Like: After suffering their fourth straight loss last weekend, there is not much to be happy about as a Kangaroos fan or punter. In an unreliable team, it is hard to find any safe bets on the squad, especially when it comes to the player markets. For the Demons, Christian Petracca ($2.40) to get 30+ disposals and Clayton Oliver ($2.20) to get 35+ disposals are the best options on the player markets for disposals. For the Demons goalkickers, rookie Jacob van Rooyen ($1.70) and small forward Kade Chandler ($2.20) are new certainties to score two or more goals against an inexperienced Roos defence line.

Final Thoughts: While Alastair Clarkson has a long-term plan for the Kangaroos, it does not mean they will be able to win this week. A 99.9% chance to lose; all that depends is how much the Demons will beat the by. Receiving back Max Gawn and others last weekend, the Demons looked formidable and back to their premiership-winning form. The safe bet for this game is to take the margin and Melbourne to win by 40+ at $1.66.

Best Bet: Margin- Melbourne 40+ @ $1.66

West Coast Eagles vs Carlton Blues

History: Played 48: Eagles 26, Blues 22

Last meeting: Round 17, 2022- Blues 17.14 (116) def Eagles 8.5 (53) at Perth Stadium

Team News: The home team will lose their captain Luke Shuey (ankle). Shannon Hurn is set to be available after being managed, and Xavier O’Neill is the likeliest option to replace Shuey after being dropped. The Blues will be hoping star defender Adam Saad (hamstring) can recover from injury and will go through a fitness test before the game. Jesse Motlop (suspension) will miss the game, with Paddy Dow (40 disposals), Jack Carroll (37 disposals) and Jaxon Binns (29 disposals) probable to replace him after impressive performances in the VFL.

What We Like: One team not to be on this week is the West Coast Eagles. A side riddled by injury and poor form, it is better for punters to stay away from the club. However, there is plenty to like from the Carlton Blues’ perspective. Some projected solid, safe bets include Calrton scoring over 96.5 points at $1.85, Harry McKay scoring 2+ goals at $1.40, and Carlton winning all four quarters at $1.82.

Final Thoughts: Sam Walsh has been absolutely critical to the Carlton midfield in recent weeks and has become the number one target alongside Patrick Cripps. Walsh is averaging 31.5 disposals per game and is classified among the elite class in the competition. As most of his disposals come in the form of handballs (19.0), it has been easy for Walsh to rack up touches after touches. Facing an injury-riddled side of the West Coast Eagles, expect Walsh to take control of the game and easily get over 35+ disposals at $2.35.

Best Bet: To get 35 or more disposals- Sam Walsh @ $2.35 

Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats

History: Played 221: Bombers 115, Cats 101, Draw 5

Last meeting: Round 1, 2022- Cats 20.18 (138) def Bombers 11.6 (72) at MCG

Team News: Zach Merret (suspension) will re-enter the team, but Jayden Laverde (shoulder) will exit after being subbed out for the game against the Magpies. In favour of Laverde, the Bombers have a tough decision to make between multiple players- Harrison Jones, Nick Hind, Ben Hobbs (the favourite) or Massimo D’Ambrosio. Andrew Phillips may also be rested due to the short turnaround, with Nick Bryan entering the side. The Cats received no injuries against the Swans and will remain unchanged. However, Jed Bews may be available if he exits concussion protocols.

What We Like: Zach Merrett will be hoping to continue his strong form as he re-enters the team from suspension. He is currently averaging 29.6 disposals per game; a prediction that he will get 30+ against the Cats is a solid bet. Especially since Merrett is paying $1.83 for 30+, it is a great way for punters to win on a safe bet. For the Cats, they will be looking to showcase a goal-scoring clinic with Jeremy Cameron ($1.60) and Tom Hawkins ($2.45) to kick three or more, whilst Gary Rohan ($2.80) and Brad Close ($3.90) are likely to get two a piece.

Final Thoughts: The Geelong Cats will not lose. After getting into the 2023 season, they have produced three consecutive scores of above 127. The last was a 93-point demolition of the Sydney Swans in a Grand Final rematch. Expected to score multiple goals yet again, all eyes should be focused on the dynamic duo of Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins. While either could be classified as the best bet, Hawkins may edge out his teammate at $2.45, as the Bombers might decide to pay more attention to the former GWS Giant.

Best Bet: To Score 3 or more goals- Tom Hawkins @ $2.45 

Richmond Tigers vs Gold Coast Suns

History: Played 12: Tigers 7, Suns 5

Last meeting: Round 17, 2022- Suns 14.10 (94) def Tigers 13.14 (92) at Carrara

Team News: The Suns will have to make a major change this round with Touk Miller injured. This means coach Stuart Dew will either have to call upon Bailey Humphrey, Alex Davies or Connor Blakely to fill the massive void left by Miller. Humphrey is the likely replacement, having appeared as the Round 6 sub. Richmond may also make a couple of changes. The extent of Maurice Rioli Jr’s (hamstring) injury is not yet known, while Jack Graham (hamstring) and Nathan Broad (suspension) could return back into the team after stints on the sidelines. This means Tylar Young and/or Hugo Ralphsmith could give way for the two, but especially Broad.

What We Like: The bottom-of-the-table clash is sure to be interesting, with both clubs struggling with inconsistency. The Tigers always seem to get out of the block hard, so consider them at $1.55 to reach 25 points first. As the Suns will feel the absence of Touk Miller, someone needs to stand up in the midfield and take his place. Enter David Swallow and Brandon Ellis. The two experienced players play across the halfback flank and midfield and will need to take control. To gather 20+ disposals, Swallow ($2.12) and Ellis ($1.52) are two good bets to get behind.

Final Thoughts: It has been an unfortunate start to the season for Richmond fans as they currently sit near the bottom of the table in the 16th spot. Victim to a tough draw, the Tigers will head into this week as favourites. Taking into account the injury of Gold Coast’s best player – Touk Miller – and the inconsistency of the Suns’ forwards, a Suns victory is nearly impossible. The Tigers should get away with a win but don’t expect a blowout. Thus, Richmond 1-39 is the best available bet at $2.12.

Best Bet: Margin- Richmond 1-39 @ $2.12

Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies

History: Played 47: Magpies 31, Crows 15, Draw 1

Last meeting: Round 18, 2022- Magpies 14.7 (91) def Crows 13.8 (86) at Adelaide Oval

Team News: The Crows will likely remain unchanged after not accumulating any injuries from last week’s game. However, defender Patrick Parnell could make his return from concussion after appearing in the SANFL last week. Just like their opponents, the Magpies should keep the same 23. Although Josh Carmichael (33 disposals, 7 clearances) and Ed Allan (19 disposals, 7 tackles) have made a case to be included in the team from the VFL game last round.

What We Like: All eyes should be on Nick Daicos, who has turned into the clear favourite for the Brownlow Medal. The 20-year-old is averaging 36.7 disposals and is in the elite category for the AFL competition. Daicos is paying $1.81 for 35+ disposals and $3.40 for 40+ disposals. Not to be outdone by his midfield competition Rory Laird has slowly picked up the pace earning more and more touches. Laird is paying $1.52 (30+ disposals), $2.70 (35+ disposals) and $6.25 (40+ disposals). Both are reasonable choices; the only way they don’t get more than 35 touches is if they are tagged, but it is unlikely.

Final Thoughts: It is hard to decide on the best bet in what could be a thrilling match between the Crows and Magpies. The Magpies may be the favourite, but Adelaide should never be counted out, especially when they are at home. After defeating Brisbane, St Kilda and Essendon in the ANZAC Day Clash last week, they will have the upper edge. Picking Collingwood to win at $1.55 is a safe bet, regardless of the margin.

Best Bet: Match Result- Collingwood @ $1.55


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