AFL Tips & Preview – Round 21

Round 21 of the 2021 AFL season is crunch time for four clubs in their Top 8 quest, with Fremantle, GWS, Essendon and Richmond under pressure to deliver.

Geelong v GWS Giants @ GMHBA Stadium Friday 6th August, 19:50 (AEST)
Geelong		GWS Giants
Pos	Player	Pos	Player
B	Henry, Blicavs, Kreuger	B	Stein, Taylor, Cumming
HB	Stewart, Z.Guthrie, Kolodjashnij	HB	Perryman, Haynes, Ash
C	Holmes, C.Guthrie, Tuohy	C	O’Halloran, de Boer, Whitfield
HF	Dahlhaus, Ratugolea, Higgins	HF	Daniels, Himmelberg, Greene
F	Dangerfield, Hawkins, Rohan	F	Sproule, Riccardi, Taranto
FOL	Stanley, Selwood, Parfitt	FOL	Briggs, Ward, Kelly
I/C	Bews, Clark, Menegola, Close	I/C	Bruhn, Brown, Peatling, Idun

History: Played 11: Geelong 7 v GWS 3 (1 draw)

Last Meeting: AFL Round 1, 2020: GWS (105) def Geelong (73)

Final Thoughts: Alongside the Swans, Geelong are the competition’s most in-form sides. Five straight wins, by an average of 39 points, has Chris Scott’s side tracking strongly for a top-two finish, which guarantees the double chance and two home finals.

They come up against a Giants outfit with plenty to play for. Defeat to Port Adelaide in Round 20 has put Leon Cameron’s men now $3.75 outsiders to make the Top 8, with Fremantle ($3.00), Richmond ($3.50) and Essendon ($3.50) all considered better shots at squeezing inside. They’ll take *some* confidence onto this one knowing they’ve had the Cats’ measure on the last two occasions. However the absence of Jacob Hopper and defender Phil Davis will certainly hurt their hopes of an upset.

Tip: Line, GWS +33.5 @ $1.90

Carlton v Gold Coast Suns @ Marvel Stadium Saturday 7th August, 13:45 (AEST)
Carlton		Gold Coast
Pos	Player	Pos	Player
B	Stocker, Weitering, Jones	B	Powell, Collins, Lemmens
HB	Newman, Plowman, Saad	HB	Farrar, Ballard, Swallow
C	E.Curnow, Cripps, Newnes	C	Ellis, Miller, Sharp
HF	Kennedy, C.Curnow, Silvagni	HF	Townsend, Jeffrey, Sexton
F	Betts, McKay, Martin	F	Burgess, King, Ainsworth
FOL	De Koning, Walsh, Dow	FOL	Smith, Anderson, MacPherson
I/C	Williamson, O’Brien, Honey, Fisher	I/C	Corbett, Fiorini, Lukosius, Rowell

History: Played 14: Carlton 9 v Gold Coast 5

Last Meeting: AFL Round 4, 2021: Gold Coast (59) def by Carlton (70)

Final Thoughts: While Blues fans would be pleased with last week’s win over the Saints, it’s equally likely to have come with a huge sigh. Why couldn’t that effort come against North Melbourne the week previous? Or Geelong a fortnight before that? David Teague’s side pick and choose far too often when they want to commit to the contest. It makes backing them with any form of confidence incredibly difficult. So while they should theoretically knock off the Suns comfortably, they’re equally likely to turn in a horrid performance.

Stuart Dew’s side have checked out for the season, losing their last two clashes by a combined 147 points. It’s difficult to see them finding inspiration in this one unless, as mentioned, the Blues forget to turn up.

Tip: Margin, Carlton 1-39 @ $2.10

Richmond v North Melbourne @ MCG Saturday 7th August, 16:35 (AEST)
North Melbourne		Geelong
Pos	Player	Pos	Player
B	Vlastuin, Grimes, Astbury	B	Tarrant, McKay, Bonar
HB	Stack, Short, D.Rioli	HB	Ziebell, Walker, Hall
C	Edwards, Cotchin, McIntosh	C	Dumont, Simpkin, McDonald
HF	Ralphsmith, Baker, Bolton	HF	Stephenson, Larkey, Scott
F	Lynch, Parker, Riewoldt	F	Anderson, Zurhaar, Mahony
FOL	Nankervis, Prestia, Graham	FOL	Goldstein, Davies-Uniacke, Thomas
I/C	Mansell, Coleman-Jones, Lambert, M.Rioli	I/C	Taylor, Turner, Ford, Campbell

History: Played 161: Richmond 86 v North Melbourne 73 (2 draws)

Last Meeting: AFL Round 7, 2020: Richmond (77) def North Melbourne (23)

Final Thoughts: Richmond’s hopes of a Top 8 finish are drifting further and further away each week. Six defeats in their last seven starts has, incredibly, rendered the most dominant club of the last five years on the verge of a September-less season. However, an inability by clubs around them on the ladder, namely Essendon and GWS, to push beyond the mid-table logjam has left them in with a sniff. Games against North Melbourne, GWS and Hawthorn to come certainly helps, and three straight wins is likely to see them squeeze in.

That relies on a win here, though, which is no easy task. North Melbourne’s second half of the season has impressive (notwithstanding their ladder position) and they continue to cover their pre-match line on an almost weekly basis. It’s a nod to the competitiveness that David Noble has instilled at the club. They know they’re a sniff this week, and could all but end the Richmond dynasty with four points at the MCG.

Tip: To score 2+ goals, Shai Bolton (Rich) @ $2.80

Adelaide v Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval Saturday 7th August, 19:40 (AEST)
Adelaide		Port Adelaide
Pos	Player	Pos	Player
B	Murray, Butts, Kelly	B	Burton, McKenzie, Aliir
HB	McPherson, Doedee, Jones	HB	Bergman, Jonas, Byrne-Jones
C	Smith, Keays, Seedsman	C	Duursma, Wines, Houston
HF	Mackay, Fogarty, Murphy	HF	Amon, Georgiades, Butters
F	McHenry, Himmelberg, Walker, Thilthorpe	F	Gray, Dixon, Rozee
FOL	O’Brien, Laird, Sloane	FOL	Lycett, Boak, Drew
I/C	Cook, Lynch, Schoenberg, Hamill	I/C	Powell-Pepper, Bonner, Ladhams, Fantasia

 

History: Played 49: Adelaide 24 v Port Adelaide 25

Last Meeting: AFL Round 8, 2021: Port Adelaide (87) def Adelaide (38)

Final Thoughts: Despite showing signs of promise at times this season (a bright start, a win over flag fancies Melbourne, for example), the truth is that Adelaide are revealing themselves as a true bottom four side. Four defeats in their last five — each by an average of over 50 points — sees them stumbling towards the finish line in 2021. And while the Showdown will stir something inside them perhaps not immediately apparent in other games, it’s tough to see them getting up in this one.

Port Adelaide, by contrast, have plenty to play for. Looking to stave off an in-form Swans outfit and protect their position in fourth, the lure of the double-chance should be enough of a carrot for Ken Hinkley’s men.

Tip: Margin, Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.10

St Kilda v Sydney Swans @ Marvel Stadium Saturday 7th August, 19:40 (AEST)
St Kilda		Sydney
Pos	Player	Pos	Player
B	Coffield, Wilkie, Connolly	B	Cunningham, Rampe, Fox
HB	Sinclair, Webster, Hill	HB	Dawson, McCartin, Lloyd
C	McKenzie, Dunstan, Ross	C	McInerney, Parker, Mills
HF	Butler, Byrnes, Kent	HF	Papley, Heeney, Hayward
F	King, Membrey, Sharman	F	Wicks, Franklin, Reid
FOL	Marshall, Steele, Jones	FOL	Hickey, Hewett, Gulden
I/C	Joyce, Highmore, Crouch, Higgins	I/C	Blakey, Kennedy, Florent, Stephens

History: Played 219: St Kilda 78 v Sydney 138 (3 draws)

Last Meeting: AFL Round 12, 2021: Sydney (92) def St Kilda (83)

Final Thoughts: Just over a month ago, the Swans were considered outside finals hopes and a distant $41 AFL Premiership hope with Palmerbet. Fast-forward five weeks, and five-straight wins — each against clubs either locked in for finals or within the finals race — has seen them bolt into $7.50 flag chances. They’re undeniably the surprise-packet of the season, and their next goal is a Top 4 spot. While Port Adelaide remain $1.40 favourite to remain in the Top 4, the Swans’ straightforward draw to come (St Kilda, North Melbourne and Gold Coast) puts them in with a strong shout.

The Saints put an end to any remaining finals hopes in 2021 with a poor loss to Carlton in Round 20. Let’s not forget this is a side considered by many to be genuine Top 4 hopes this season. There’s little to play for for Brett Ratten’s side now, but the pressure-free approach might see them play the expansive footy we know they’re capable of.

Tip: To get 30+ disposals, Callum Mills (Syd) @ $2.10

Hawthorn v Collingwood @ UTAS Stadium Sunday 8th August, 14:10 (AEST)
Hawthorn		Collingwood
Pos	Player	Pos	Player
B	Scrimshaw, Hartigan, Frost	B	Quaynor, Roughead, Maynard
HB	Burgoyne, Hardwick, Bramble	HB	Crisp, Madgen, Howe
C	Howe, O’Meara, Shiels	C	Hoskin-Elliott, De Goey, Mayne
HF	Moore, O’Brien, Worpel	HF	Thomas, Cameron, Ginnivan
F	Nash, Lewis, McEvoy	F	Henry, Mihocek, Elliott
FOL	Reeves, Mitchell, Worpel	FOL	Grundy, Sidebottom, Adams
I/C (from)	Hanrahan, Phillips, Morrison, Brockman, Greaves, Morris, Koschitzke, Ceglar	I/C (from)	Bianco, Cox, Daicos, Macrae, McCreery, Noble, Ruscoe, Wilson

 

History: Played 166: Hawthorn 68 v Collingwood 98

Last Meeting: AFL Round 6, 2020: Collingwood (59) def Hawthorn (27)

Final Thoughts: Both coming off upset wins in Round 20, this clash is undoubtedly the toughest to pick a winner from this weekend. And the early markets reflect that, Collingwood edging the Hawks as marginal $1.85 favourites. Under interim coach Robert Harvey the Pies are playing free-flowing, entertaining footy, especially when compared with the turgid style employed under Nathan Buckley. And while there’s little on the line, the winner would all but guarantee an avoidance of the wooden spoon. So there’s that…

The Hawks put a coaching debacle behind them in the Round 20 win over Brisbane but whether the Clarko-final-days inspiration lasts is another thing. On form in the last fortnight the Pies should have enough — but only just.

Tip: To come

Western Bulldogs v Essendon @ Marvel Stadium Sunday 8th August, 15:20 (AEST)
Western Bulldogs		Essendon
Pos	Player	Pos	Player
B	Wood, Cordy, Williams	B	Laverde, Stewart, Francis
HB	Daniel, Schache, Dale	HB	Redman, Ridley, Hind
C	Treloar, Liberatore, La.Hunter	C	Cutler, Merrett, Cox
HF	Johannisen, Naughton, B.Smith	HF	Smith, Stringer, Shiel
F	Ugle-Hagan, Bruce, Dunkley	F	McDonald-Tipungwuti, Wright, Durham
FOL	English, Macrae, Bontempelli	FOL	Draper, Snelling, Parish
I/C (from)	Richards, Duryea, Scott, Garcia, McNeil, Smith, Le.Young, Lipinski	I/C (from)	Gleeson, Clarke, Guelfi, Perkins, Ham, Waterman, Phillips, Hooker

 

History: Played 162: Western Bulldogs 66 v Essendon 94 (2 draws)

Last Meeting: AFL Round 7, 2020: Essendon (51) def by Western Bulldogs (93)

Final Thoughts: Back-to-back losses has put a huge dent in Essendon’s finals hopes. The Bombers ($3.50 to make the Top 8 with Palmerbet) are now in a real scrap with Fremantle ($3.00), Richmond ($3.50) and GWS ($3.75) to squeeze in. And they’ve got their work cut out this week, up against the ladder-leading Western Bulldogs. Luke Beveridge’s men have a stranglehold over the Dons in recent times, winning the last six by a (whopping) average of 54 points. And the task isn’t made easier for Ben Rutten after skipper Dyson Heppell and Kyle Langford both suffered injuries in last week’s loss to the Swans. The Dogs, by contrast, are (excitingly) weighing up whether to return Adam Treloar into their best 22, in what will be a huge decision in their premiership tilt.

Tip: To get 25+ disposals, Tom Liberatore (WB) @ $2.00

Fremantle v Brisbane Lions @ Optus Stadium Sunday 8th August, 17:10 (AEST)
Fremantle		Brisbane
Pos	Player	Pos	Player
B	Wilson, Logue, Ryan	B	Payne, Andrews, Lester
HB	Young, Pearce, Aish	HB	Rich, Birchall, Starcevich
C	Tucker, Mundy, Cerra	C	McCluggage, Robinson, J.Berry
HF	Colyer, Taberner, Henry	HF	Cameron, McStay, McCarthy
F	Schultz, Treacy, Crowden	F	Cockatoo, Daniher, Bailey
FOL	Darcy, Serong, Brayshaw	FOL	McInerney, Lyons, Zorko
I/C (from)	Western, Blakely, Watson, Walker, Meek, O’Discoll, Hughes, Bewley	I/C (from)	Robertson, Ah Chee, Berry, Coleman, Prior, Fullarton, Mathieson, Ballenden

 

History: Played 33: Fremantle 16 v Brisbane 17

Last Meeting: AFL Round 8, 2021: Brisbane (95) def Fremantle (71)

Final Thoughts: Just what is going on at the Lions? After a dominant win over Adelaide in Round 16, Chris Fagan’s men had shortened into $5 equal flag favourites. Since then, however, the wheels have fallen off. Not only have they lost three of the last four games, but each loss was to clubs outside the current Top 8. Combined with a season-ending injury to Eric Hipwood, and the Lions are now out to $11 in AFL Premiership betting with Palmerbet. Unquestionably they need a win here not just to keep their Top 4 hopes alive, but to regain lost confidence.

They face a Fremantle outfit who will be a tough beat in Perth. Still riding high from a pulsating four-point win over Richmond, signs were positive that Fremantle may just have enough to make the finals in 2021. But given the logjam of sides jostling for eighth — plus the Dockers’ poor percentage — their position inside the 8 is precarious at best. With a game against rivals West Coast to come, four points here is crucial.

Tip: Line, Brisbane -10.5 @ $1.90

West Coast Eagles v Melbourne @ Optus Stadium Monday 9th August, 20:10 (AEST)
West Coast		Melbourne
Pos	Player	Pos	Player
B	Cole, H.Edwards, Hurn	B	Bowey, May, Petty
HB	Duggan, McGovern, Sheppard	HB	Hunt, Lever, Salem
C	Gaff, Kelly, Redden	C	Brayshaw, Petracca, Langdon
HF	Langdon, Darling, Cripps	HF	Pickett, McDonald, Spargo
F	Petruccelle, Kennedy, Allen	F	Neal-Bullen, Brown, Fritsch
FOL	Naitanui, Yeo, Sheed	FOL	Gawn, Oliver, Harmes
I/C (from)	Waterman, Edwards, Vardy, Witherden, Nelson, Hutchings, Rotham, West	I/C (from)	Jackson, Melksham, vandenBerg, Jordon, Rivers, Weideman, Sparrow, Smith

 

History: Played 54: West Coast 37 v Melbourne 17

Last Meeting: AFL Round 1, 2020: West Coast (78) def Melbourne (51)

Final Thoughts: The Eagles have won just two of their last five and, if not for a host of finals hopefuls stumbling late in the home-and-away season, their Top 8 spot could be seriously under threat. However another loss here, with the derby coming up next week, could make things really interesting for Adam Simpson who at present are $1.28 fancies to remain inside the Top 8. Simpson will take comfort know they have the recent edge over the Dees, winning the last four in a row — famously including a 66-point humbling in the 2019 preliminary final.

For the Dees, there isn’t a whole heap to play for other than gaining some pre-finals momentum. A Top 4 spot is all but sewn up (currently $1.04 with Palmerbet), and while a top two spot would be nice to secure a home final, two Victorian clubs above them means they likely won’t be travelling in the first week of the finals anyhow. Both Tom McDonald (back) and Jack Viney (suspension) are unavailable.

Tip: Margin, Melbourne 1-39 @ $1.91