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AFL Tips & Preview – Round 19

Round 19 of the 2022 AFL season is crunch time for five clubs jostling for the final position inside the Top 8, while the Top 4 battle also heats up.

Richmond v Fremantle @ Marvel Stadium

Friday 22nd July, 19:50 (AEST)

RichmondFremantle
PosPlayerPosPlayer
B

Grimes, Miller, Tarrant

B

Aish, Cox, Clark

HBBroad, Vlastuin, D.RioliHBWalker, Ryan, Pearce
CPickett, Short, McIntoshCBrayshaw, Fyfe, Acres
HFGraham, Bolton, BakerHFSchultz, Banfield, Henry
FRiewoldt, Cumberland, BaltaFFrederick, Taberner, Walters
FOLNankervis, Prestia, CotchinFOLDarcy, Brodie, Serong
I/CRalphsmith, Soldo, Sonsie, EdwardsI/CYoung, Chapman, Logue, Mundy


History:
Played 39: Richmond 22 v Fremantle 17

Last Meeting: AFL R20 2021: Fremantle 7.13 (55) dftd Richmond 6.15 (51)

Final Thoughts: After knocking off the Blues in Round 14, Richmond looked every bit back to their best and had the aura of a side who could yet claim a fourth flag in six years. Since then, however, three losses in four games has followed and almost inexplicably their finals position is under threat. With key outs in Martin and Lynch, Damien Hardwick’s needs other big-game players to step up at the MCG. They face a Fremantle side themselves down on confidence; outplayed on home turf by the Swans last weekend. Like Richmond, their second-half pressure and desire has come into question. Given this will undoubtedly be a sharp area of focus for both sides going into this one, a tight one could ensue.

Recent battles between these two sides have been low-scoring affairs, with neither side scoring over 60 points in the last two clashes.

Tip: H2H, Fremantle @ $1.87

North Melbourne v Hawthorn @ Blundstone Arena

Saturday 23rd July, 13:45 (AEST)

North MelbourneHawthorn
PosPlayerPosPlayer
B

Scott, McKay, Young

B

Scrimshaw, Blanck, Impey

HBMcDonald, Corr, BonarHBSicily, Hardwick, Grainger-Barras
CPowell, Davies-Uniacke, GreenwoodCDay, Mitchell, Ward
HFCurtis, Larkey, Horne-FrancisHFMcEvoy, Macdonald, Breust
FZurhaar, Ziebell, TaylorFGunston, Lewis, Moore
FOLGoldstein, Simpkin, AndersonFOLReeves, Newcombe, O’Meara
I/CStephenson, Coleman-Jones, Spicer, PerezI/CNash, Morrison, Maginness, Morris


History:
Played 179: North Melbourne 78 v Hawthorn 99 (2 draws)

Last Meeting: AFL R1 2022: Hawthorn 11.12 (78) dftd North Melbourne 8.10 (58)

Final Thoughts: North’s horror 2022 had a rare moment of joy last weekend with a huge underdog win over Richmond last weekend — the biggest upset of the season to date in Palmerbet’s head-to-head markets. Now equal on two wins with West Coast, the Kangaroos could even avoid what appeared a nailed-on wooden spoon this season; victory over the Tigers saw them lengthened from $1.12 to $1.60 in Palmerbet’s ‘least wins’ market.

While a quasi home game for North at Blundstone Arena, the Hobart ground hasn’t been a happy hunting for them this season; smashed by 57+ points on all three occasions — two of which by clubs outside the Top 8. Hawthorn’s prospects of finishing any higher than 13th are minimal in 2022 but victory here would give them three-straight wins and a certain pass mark for Sam Mitchell in his first season as head coach.

Tip: Line, Hawthorn -20.5 @ $1.90

Sydney Swans v Adelaide Crows @ SCG

Saturday 23rd July, 13:45 (AEST)

SydneyAdelaide
PosPlayerPosPlayer
B

Fox, Rampe, P.McCartin

B

Doedee, Butts, Hamill

HBLloyd, T.McCartin, McInerneyHBSmith, Murray, Dawson
CFlorent, Parker, ClarkeCHinge, Laird, Jones
HFGulden, Amartey, HeeneyHFMcAdam, Fogarty, Soligo
FHayward, Franklin, PapleyFMcHenry, Walker, Murphy
FOLHickey, Mills, WarnerFOLO’Brien, Berry, Keays
I/CBlakey, Stephens, Rowbottom, ReidI/CThilthorpe, Schoenberg, Milera, Parnell


History:
Played 43: Sydney 18 v Adelaide 25

Last Meeting: AFL R2 2021: Sydney 18.13 (121) dftd Adelaide 11.22 (88)

Final Thoughts: One of the toughest teams to get a read on in 2022, the Swans have seemingly hit full flight at the best possible time. A dominant win over the Dogs was followed up with an even more impressive victory of Fremantle in Perth in Round 17, in what was a marker for Sydney’s potential this season. Four points in that game has also brought a Top 4 finish right into play for John Longmire, whose side has perhaps the most straightforward run home of all AFL sides. However the won’t be looking too far ahead — the Swans have failed in three Saturday afternoon games this season they went in as favourites in (against Gold Coast, Port Adelaide and Essendon).

The Crows continue to be competitive in 2022 but that’s about all you can say for Matthew Nicks’ side. Since Round 6, Adelaide’s only victories have been against cellar dwellers North Melbourne and West Coast. They deservedly start as considerable underdogs in this one.

Tip: Line, Adelaide +38.5 @ $1.90

Port Adelaide v Geelong Cats @ Adelaide Oval

Saturday 23rd July, 16:35 (AEST)

Port AdelaideGeelong
PosPlayerPosPlayer
B

Burton, Jonas, Clurey

B

O’Connor, De Koning, Z.Guthrie

HBByrne-Jones, Aliir, HoustonHBBews, Henry, Tuohy
CAmon, Drew, FarrellCDuncan, Blicavs, Smith
HFButters, Marshall, RozeeHFRohan, Cameron, Dangerfield
FGray, Dixon, Powell-PepperFClose, Hawkins, Stengle
FOLFinlayson, Wines, BoakFOLStanley, C.Guthrie, Selwood
I/CBergman, Georgiades, Burgoyne, McEnteeI/CKolodjashnij, Holmes, Atkins, Miers

 

History: Played 38: Port Adelaide 12 v Geelong 25 (1 draw)

Last Meeting: AFL R10 2022: Geelong 11.16 (82) dftd Port Adelaide 7.5 (47)

Final Thoughts: Despite a loss against flag favourites Melbourne last week, Port Adelaide maintain their slim hopes of snatching eighth this season thanks largely to Richmond’s huge upset loss against North Melbourne last week. But while the door has been kept ajar, defeat here would almost certainly spell curtains on a 2022 season that saw them start well behind the eight-ball with a 0-5 start. Ken Hinkley’s men have been strong at home this season having won their last six at Adelaide Oval — a venue they have almost had recent success against the Cats at (won three of their last four).

The Cats have almost overtaken the Dees as flag favourites and, if they were to secure a ninth-straight win in dominant fashion here, could well take the mantle by the end of Round 19. Four more points here, considering their strong percentage, would give them one foot inside a home qualifying final.

Tip: Total score, Over 154.5 @ $1.88

Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast Suns @ Gabba

Saturday 23rd July, 19:10 (AEST)

BrisbaneGold Coast
PosPlayerPosPlayer
B

Gardiner, Adams, Zorko

B

Graham, Collins, Lemmens

HBStarcevich, Andrews, RichHBFarrar, Ballard, Lukosius
CAh Chee, J.Berry, McCluggageCSharp, Miller, Ellis
HFBailey, Hipwood, McCarthyHFAinsworth, Chol, Swallow
FMcStay, Daniher, CameronFRankine, Casboult, Holman
FOLMcInerney, Neale, RaynerFOLWitts, Rowell, Anderson
I/CRobinson, Lyons, Mathieson, AnswerthI/CAtkins, Flanders, Hollands, Macpherson


History:
Played 22: Brisbane 16 v Gold Coast 6

Last Meeting: AFL R6 2022: Gold Coast 11.14 (80) lost to Brisbane Lions 21.6 (132)

Final Thoughts: It’s a tricky run home for the Lions, with all five remaining games in the home-and-away season against clubs in finals contention. And it starts this weekend with a hugely anticipated Q-clash on Saturday night. The Suns will treat the rivalry game as a quasi-final, knowing defeat almost certainly knocks them out of contention for the final spot in the AFL Top 8 they’re gunning for. For the Lions, who are 2-2 in the last month of footy, it appears some punters have jumped off them as premiership fancies. In fact, Chris Fagan’s men have doubled their flag price (from $5 to $10) in the period that followed a damning loss to the Dees in Round 15. And while Chris Fagan remains a popular coach at the club — and someone who has taken the club to three-straight Top 4 finishes — the fact remains he has won just one of six finals at Brisbane. If that’s going to change in 2022, they need to start gathering some momentum in the lead up to September.

Tip: Line, Gold Coast +22.5 @ $1.90

Western Bulldogs v Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium

Saturday 23rd July, 19:25 (AEST)

Western BulldogsMelbourne
PosPlayerPosPlayer
B

Richard, Gardner, Khamis

B

Rivers, May, Petty

HBHannan, Keath, DaleHBSparrow, Lever, Jordon
CWilliams, Liberatore, MacraeCBrayshaw, Oliver, Langdon
HFJohannisen, Bruce, SmithHFFritsch, Gawn, Harmes
FDunkley, Naughton, Ugle-HaganFPickett, Brown, Petracca
FOLEnglish, Bontempelli, TreloarFOLJackson, Viney, Neal-Bullen
I/C West, Weightman, Garcia, McNeilI/CSalem, Spargo, Hibberd, Melksham

 

History: Played 171: Western Bulldogs 79 v Melbourne 91 (1 draw)

Last Meeting: AFL R1 2022: Melbourne 14.13 (97) dftd Western Bulldogs 11.5 (71)

Final Thoughts: It’s make or break time for the Dogs with three exceedingly tough weeks to come, including this clash against the Dees followed by games against the Cats and Dockers. Given the logjam of clubs jostling for the final spot in the Top 8, one would assume Luke Beveridge’s men would need to win two of those to keep themselves in with a chance of finals footy. We know the Dogs were towelled up (to the tune of 74 points) against Melbourne in last year’s Grand Final, but Round 1 this season also saw the Dees fairly comfortably account for them. Melbourne still have some work to do to secure a home qualifying final, with three clubs nipping at their heels just four points behind. They’re also eager to (like last season) gather some pre-finals momentum, after an up-and-down second half to this season.

Tip: Margin, Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.25

Carlton v GWS Giants @ Marvel Stadium

Sunday 24th July, 13:10 (AEST)

CarltonGWS
PosPlayerPosPlayer
B

Saad, Weitering, Docherty

B

Keeffe, Taylor, Cumming

HBYoung, McGovern, NewmanHBWard, Himmelberg, Ash
CO’Brien, Cripps, CerraCPeatling, Bruhn, Kennedy
HFSilvagni, C.Curnow, SetterfieldHFTaranto, Haynes, Brown
FDurdin, McKay, MotlopFLloyd, Riccardi, Greene
FOLDe Koning, Walsh, KennedyFOLPreuss, Hopper, Coniglio
I/C (from)Fogarty, Stocker, Newnes, Dow, Cottrell, Fisher, Honey, PlowmanI/C (from)Briggs, Brander, Aleer, Wehr, Stein, O’Halloran, Fleeton, Sproule

 

History: Played 13: Carlton 4 v GWS 9

Last Meeting: AFL R9 2022: GWS Giants 11.9 (75) lost to Carlton 15.15 (105)

Final Thoughts: After bursting out of the blocks in 2022 to sit 8-2, things have plateaued at Carlton. Michael Voss’ men have won just three of their last seven games and, while this season has undoubtedly been a success on any metric given their poor recent history, questions are being asked of how they might fare in September should they get there. That would seem a given at this stage (the Blues are $1.12 Top 8 chances with Palmerbet), but with perhaps the league’s toughest run home (facing Brisbane, Melbourne and Collingwood) they must bank this win.

For GWS, their season is simply losing any sense of spark. And it isn’t hard to diagnose their issues — in their last four games, the Giants have averaged less than 60 points.

Tip: Margin, Carlton 1-39 @ $2.20

Collingwood v Essendon @ MCG

Sunday 24th July, 15:20 (AEST)

CollingwoodEssendon
PosPlayerPosPlayer
B

Murphy, Howe, Moore

B

Ridley, Laverde, Zerk-Thatcher

HBCrisp, Maynard, PendleburyHBRedman, Kelly, McGrath
CDaicos, Adams, NobleCDurham, Shiel, Heppell
HFElliott, Cameron, Hoskin-ElliottHFGuelfi, Martin, Langford
FMcCreery, Mihocek, SidebottomFWright, Stringer, Jones
FOLCox, Lipinski, DaicosFOLPhillips, Merrett, Caldwell
I/C (from)Quaynor, Brown, Bianco, Henry, Ruscoe, Ginnivan, Johnson, CarmichaelI/C (from)Hind, Hobbs, Snelling, Draper, Ham, D’Ambrosio, Waterman, Stewart

 

History: Played 243: Collingwood 133 v Essendon 106 (4 draws)

Last Meeting: AFL R6 2022: Essendon 12.10 (82) lost to Collingwood 15.3 (93)

Final Thoughts: An intriguing Sunday afternoon clash between two in-form sides; the Pies and Dons are two of just three AFL clubs (alongside Geelong) to have won their last three in a row. Collingwood remain outside hopes for a Top 4 berth in 2022 — something unthinkable at the start of the season — but to get there will almost certainly need to snap up four points here. Craig McRae’s men edged out Essendon earlier this season on Anzac Day, but the Pies had lost their previous three to their rivals.

For Essendon, all three wins have been either as favourites or locked at $1.90 with the opposition (as it was with Gold Coast on Sunday), which shows that the Dons are hitting their potential in 2022. Except it’s too little too late for Ben Rutten, with finals out of the equation after a horrid 2-10 start.

Tip: H2H, Collingwood @ $1.72

West Coast Eagles v St Kilda @ Optus Stadium

Sunday 24th July, 16:40 (AEST)

West CoastSt Kilda
PosPlayerPosPlayer
B

Hurn, Barrass, Duggan

B

Battle, Wilkie, Webster

HBBazzo, Edwards, JonesHBHill, Lienert, Sinclair
CHough, Shuey, FoleyCWood, Crouch, Billings
HFRyan, Darling, ReddenHFButler, Membrey, Gresham
FWaterman, Kennedy, CrippsFHiggins, King, Sharman
FOLWilliams, Kelly, GaffFOLMarshall, Steele, Ross
I/C (from)Petrevski-Seton, Witherden, O’Neill, Rotham, West, Clark, Jamieson, CulleyI/C (from)Paton, Byrnes, Windhager, Clark, Long, Highmore, Connolly, Campbell

 

History: Played 52: West Coast 32 v St Kilda 19 (1 draw)

Last Meeting: AFL R19 2021: West Coast 14.10 (94) dftd St Kilda 13.8 (86)

Final Thoughts: With their season seemingly on the line last weekend, in what was billed as a quasi eliminating final in the build-up, the Saints simply didn’t turn up in what’s been slammed as an insipid performance against the Dogs. The team that burst out of the blocks in 2022 to go 8-3 have gone 1-5 since and are lacking any of the spark that suggests they could play finals footy this year. The only saving grace of Round 17 was that the Tigers inexplicably lost to North Melbourne and left the door open to squeeze into eighth. But with tough games against Geelong, Brisbane and Sydney to round out the season, victory in the West is a must. For the Eagles, there’s little left to play for in 2022. However, a second ever Wooden Spoon now looms given North’s win last week. While it’s hardly the best incentive for victory, the proud club will be keen to avoid it, especially considering they were holding the premiership cup aloft just four years ago.

Tip: Line, West Coast +19.5 @ $1.90

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