The 2021 AFL Grand Final is finally here. With Melbourne looking to break a 57-year wait for a flag, it’s the Western Bulldogs who hope to spoil the party.
Melbourne v Western Bulldogs @ Optus StadiumSaturday 25th September, 19:15 (AEST) |
|||
| Melbourne | Western Bulldogs | ||
| Pos | Player | Pos | Player |
|
B
|
(To come) | B | (To come) |
| HB | HB | ||
| C | C | ||
| HF | HF | ||
| F | F | ||
| FOL | FOL | ||
| I/C | I/C | ||
History: Played 169: Melbourne 89 v Western Bulldogs 79 (1 draw)
Last Meeting: AFL Round 19, 2021: Western Bulldogs 13.7 (85) def. Melbourne 9.11 (65) at the MCG.
Final Thoughts:
A whole generations of Dees fans have never seen a flag. 57 years without lifting the premiership cup aloft, with a whole lot of heartache in between. On Saturday they go in at $1.65 to break the drought. And they’ll have a whole lots of neutrals on their side. Sydney did in 2005 when they broke a flag drought. So did Geelong in 2007, and the Dogs themselves in 2016.
For the Dogs? Well, they’ve been on a rollercoaster in the last six weeks, something typified by their market shifts. Equal AFL Premiership favourites ($4.20) after Round 21, a catastrophic end to the season saw them inexplicably pushed out of the Top 4, and their flag prices ballooned out to $10. But every finals win — each more impressive than the last — has (naturally) seen that price shorten weekly, and they start as $2.25 chances on Saturday night.
Teams
Both teams face tough calls heading into the biggest game of the year, although fears over certain stars have been allayed. Dees defender Steven May is “no chance” of missing the game despite a hamstring scare in the preliminary final, while Dogs pair Alex Keath (hamstring) and Cody Weightman (concussion) were both tracking well for a return. For Melbourne, they face a tough call on whether to pick the returning Joel Smith over veteran Michael Hibberd. It would appear Jayden Hunt and Jake Melksham are this year’s hard luck stories. For the Dogs, Laitham Vandermeer was forced from the field during their preliminary final win. Beveridge must decide whether — as a player with hamstring issues in the past — he’s willing to take that risk.
In short, however, both clubs go in almost full-strength.
Past meetings
Recent clashes won’t sway punters strongly either way, given both clubs registered impressive wins over the other during the 2021 AFL season. In Round 11 it was the Dees that turned in perhaps the best performance of the season to that point; 28-point victors over a Dogs side that were 9-1. The result saw Melbourne leapfrog the Dogs into $4.50 premiership favouritism with Palmerbet. In Round 19 the Dogs pegged one back, however, in similarly impressive circumstances. At a wet MCG they prevailed by 20 points, led by a two-goal, 31-disposal effort by Marcus Bontempelli. Expanding the head-to-head results is similarly tight. In their seven encounters over the past five AFL season, Melbourne edge the Dogs 4-3.
Norm Smith Medal
The Brownlow Medal fancies from Sunday night unsurprisingly go in as favourites for the 2021 Norm Smith Medal, with Christian Petracca ($6), Clayton Oliver ($7) and Bontempelli ($8) the top three chances with Palmerbet. Alongside the Bont is preliminary final hero Max Gawn, also at $8. Jack Macrae, who has just notched up the most disposals ever in an AFL season, is the only other players shorter than $15, current at $11. Smokey favourites among punters could be Bailey Smith ($15) and Bayley Fritsch ($34).
Best Bet:
I’m expecting a tight contest but the consistent body of work produced by Melbourne throughout the season suggests they won’t be spooked on the day. And as such, think they’ll get up in a close one.
Same Game Multi:
I’ll multi that same result into ‘Unders’ on the Total Points market (currently at 155.5). Four of the last five Grand Finals have finished below that figure. I like the man that finished third in Sunday’s AFL Brownlow Medal count, Clayton Oliver, as an ‘Any Time Goal Scorer’, too. Having booted three majors in his last three games, his price at $3.00 represents good value. Then as a final boost I’ll have Jack Macrae to finish with 30+ disposals, something he has (incredibly) done on 23 of 25 occasions this season.
- Melbourne by 1-39 ($2.10)
- Total Points Under 155.5 ($1.88)
- Any Time Goal Scorer: Clayton Oliver ($3.00)
- To get 30+ disposals: Jack Macrae ($1.30)
- Odds: $14.28
