Week 2 of the 2021 AFL Finals Series sees the pressure heaped back onto Geelong and Brisbane, who are both looking to avoid a straight-sets exit.
Geelong v GWS Giants @ Optus StadiumFriday 3rd September, 19:50 (AEST) |
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| Geelong | GWS Giants | ||
| Pos | Player | Pos | Player |
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B
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(To come) | B | |
| HB | HB | ||
| C | C | ||
| HF | HF | ||
| F | F | ||
| FOL | FOL | ||
| I/C | I/C | ||
History: Played 12: Geelong 7 v GWS Giants 4 (1 draw)
Last Meeting: AFL Round 21, 2021: Greater Western Sydney 13.6 (84) def Geelong 8.17 (65) at GMHBA Stadium
Final Thoughts (Geelong):
There’s good news and bad news at the Cattery. The bad? After last weekend’s defeat to Port Adelaide, Chris Scott’s men have lost their last four qualifying finals in a row. The good? In that period, each time they’ve gone on to win the corresponding semi-final. So history suggests they’ll avoid a straight-sets exit. And the markets are leaning that way too — Toby Greene’s suspension further enforcing Geelong’s favouritism in this clash ($1.35 on Wednesday afternoon).
There’s no denying, however, this experienced Cats side have hit a rut at the season’s most inopportune time. They’ve lost three of their last four games, leading to inevitable questions of whether they can go all the way in 2021. There’s no doubting Scott’s home-and-away AFL record. But there is questions to be asked of his September record, and those will be asked again on Friday night.
Final Thoughts (GWS Giants):
The Giants, by contrast, are four wins on the bounce. Leon Cameron’s men are humming at the right time. And they go into this one having beaten the Cats in their last three encounters (by 19, 32 and 4 points respectively). However the fallout from their nail-biting one-point win over the Swans is immense. It was a bruising encounter, and one they’ll have a day less recovery than their opponents. But most importantly, in Greene’s absence they miss their talisman, game-changer and barometer. Both Jesse Hogan and Harry Himmelberg will need to go above and beyond in the Giants’ forward line to give them a sniff. Further, skipper Stephen Coniglio (11 disposals against Sydney) simply needs to improve his output.
Best Bet:
- Line: Geelong -16.5 @ $1.90
Same Game Multi:
- Line: Geelong -16.5
- Any Time Goal Scorer: Gryan Miers (Geel)
- Total Points: Under 153.5
- Odds: $5.40
Brisbane Lions v Western Bulldogs @ GabbaSaturday 4th September, 19:20 (AEST) |
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| Brisbane Lions | Western Bulldogs | ||
| Pos | Player | Pos | Player |
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B
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(To come) | B | |
| HB | HB | ||
| C | C | ||
| HF | HF | ||
| F | F | ||
| FOL | FOL | ||
| I/C | I/C | ||
History: Played 58: Brisbane Lions 24 v Western Bulldogs 34
Last Meeting: AFL Round 4, 2021: Western Bulldogs 10.13 (73) def Brisbane 8.6 (54) at Mars Stadium
Final Thoughts (Brisbane Lions): The Lions were simply outclassed by a better opponent last weekend, going down to Melbourne (now $2.60 premiership favourites) by 33 points. And while they’ve earned the right for a second chance owing to a Top 4 finish, there’s genuine questions that hang over Brisbane. This, their third straight Top 4 finish in a row, was meant to be the season they went all the way to an AFL Grand Final. Why? In 2019 they overachieved during the year and were bundled out in straight sets. In 2020 they went one better, but were outclassed in Preliminary Final weekend. So the natural progression, in 2021, was to go one further. But they’ve got a whole heap of work to do if they’re going to do that. Already missing key forward Eric Hipwood, the absence of Daniel McStay looms as a tough one to fill.
As has been noted this week, Brisbane’s home-and-away record at the Gabba is incredible (28-2 in their last 30 games). But during finals that’s dropped off considerably (1-3). Positively for Chris Fagan, both recent clashes against the Dogs at the venue have gone his way (a 24-point win in 2020 and an 18-point win in 2019).
Final Thoughts (Western Bulldogs): The Dogs were brilliant in the wet last week and withstood a whole heap of midweek pressure to claim a convincing Elimination Final win. Could it just be the catalyst to kick-start their Grand Final tilt? Given they were considered a flag chance all season before flagging in recent weeks, victory here would send a warning shot that they’re far from done with in 2021.
Despite the fact they start as marginal $2.33 outsiders, several pundits believe they’re ripe for an upset this weekend. One of those is Melbourne legend Garry Lyon, who says the Western Bulldogs are back in the “hunt” after the Tassie victory. “The Bulldogs got back to what has made the Bulldogs such a great side over the journey,” Lyon said on SEN. “When the rain came, to me, they just seemed to me to want to get their hands dirty and it was back to that aggressive, hunting the footy, winning contested ball, pushing it forward … I love what they did.” Earlier this year the Dogs were far too strong for the Lions, controlling the Round 4 contest in Ballarat to run out 19-point winners.
Best Bet:
- H2H: Western Bulldogs @ $2.33
Same Game Multi:
- H2H: Western Bulldogs
- Any Time Goal Scorer: Zac Bailey (Bris)
- Total Points: Under 164.5
- Odds: $5.46