Round 21 of the 2022 AFL season saw the Pies get it done in a tight one AGAIN, while Richmond look set for a September return.

Here’s how it looked for punters: 

The run continues

It’s almost getting silly now.

Collingwood won their 11th game on the bounce on Friday night and most incredibly, four more points saw the Pies ($3.12 outsiders against Melbourne pre-game) claim a 10th win by under two goals this season. At one stage $101 AFL Premiership outsiders, they now look set to finish inside the Top 4 in 2022. Prior to the game questions still hung around Collingwood and their ability to claim a ‘big scalp’. They answered those queries, and have now converted many non-believers. There was no shortage of individual efforts either, with fourth-gamer Ash Johnson booting four ($31 to do so pre-game with Palmerbet), a feat matched by in-form star Jamie Elliot ($19). The win saw the Pies shorten into $8 flag hopes.

Tigers on for September return

At 42 points down to Brisbane in Round 20, Richmond’s season looked all but done. A stunning comeback in that clash, then a dominant win over Port Adelaide on the weekend, has put Damien Hardwick’s side in the box seat to return to AFL Finals action. The Tigers went in as $2.18 outsiders for the interstate trip, but beat up on the Power to run out 38-point winners and blow away their pre-game line of +5.5. After losses to fellow Top 8 hopefuls St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs, Round 21 could hardly have gone better.

Prior to the weekend, the three clubs were clustered together as Top 8 chances; Tigers $1.91, Dogs $2.00 and the Saints $4.00. The weekend fallout has completely changed the landscape, with the odds now: Tigers $1.11, Dogs $5 and the Saints $5.

Blues on shaky ground

Even since before the bye rounds this season, Carlton have looked nailed-on to make their first AFL Finals series since 2013. In fact, just a fortnight ago, Michael Voss’ side had shortened into $1.04 Top 8 hopes with Palmerbet. But things have gone awry. Two further defeats — the latest to Brisbane after starting as $3.12 outsiders — make things considerably more nervy. The Blues have games against the Pies and Dees to come (both currently inside the Top 4); clashes in which they will likely start as underdogs in. One win would seal it, but two defeats sees them relying on other results to squeeze in. At $1.22 they’re still favoured, but a loss to Melbourne on Saturday night and a Dogs win over GWS would make things far closer — and shakier — for the Blues. To rub salt into the wounds, skipper Patrick Cripps could spend the final games of the home-and-away AFL season on the sidelines. Cripps’ hit on Callum Ah Chee may see him rubbed out for two games.