Three losses in their last four games — each to clubs outside the Top 8 — has dealt a huge blow to Brisbane’s AFL Premiership hopes in 2021.
Have the wheels fallen off at Brisbane?
After a dominant win over Adelaide in Round 16, Chris Fagan’s men were flying high. After that win, the Lions had shortened into $5 equal flag favourites. Since then, however, things have gone pear-shaped. Fagan has seen his side go down three of the last four games. Not only that, but each loss was to clubs outside the current Top 8. Combined with a season-ending injury to Eric Hipwood, and the Lions are now out to $11 in AFL Premiership betting with Palmerbet.
"It's slipping through their fingers." 😮 Jason Dunstall believes the Lions have "lost their mojo" and are out of premiership contention. 🗣 #AFL360 pic.twitter.com/zhFnq7gDB8
— Fox Footy (@FOXFOOTY) August 2, 2021
Top 4 done
First and foremost, the all-important Top 4 spot now looks done.
Less than a month ago, the Lions were considered almost locks. After top-two finishes in 2019 and 2020, another finish inside the ‘double-chance’ spots would set them up nicely for a premiership tilt. At that stage, they were as short as $1.17 to remain in the AFL Top 4 by season’s end.
Now, however, eight points adrift of Port Adelaide in fourth, and the Lions are $10 with Palmerbet after a loss to the Hawks in Round 20. Hawthorn legend Jason Dunstall says they’ve “lost their mojo”. “They were the best team to watch in the first half of the season,” Dunstall said. “I really enjoyed the way they played. But there’s not connection now when they’re moving the footy from the back, to the middle, to the forward 50. It’s just not happening for them.”
Brisbane's first goalless quarter of the season. Just five I50s (Hawks had 20). Chasing a top-four spot. 😬 #AFLHawksLions
— Shayne Hope 📰 (@shayne_hope) August 1, 2021
Premiership hopes done?
We know only one club has finished outside the Top 8 and won the AFL Premiership this century (Western Bulldogs, 2016). So if the Lions are to buck the trend, they’ll have to do it the hard way. North Melbourne legend and Fox Footy pundit David King thinks they’re finished for 2021. “I think their year’s over now, I think they’re done, they’re not firing a shot, I don’t think they can win it,” King told Fox Footy’s First Crack. “I don’t think they’ll be competitive with the top three or maybe four in the competition this season, they’ve become a really bland football club, they looked lacklustre today (against Hawthorn).
The Lions have won just six quarters of their last 16. Perhaps one positive is the form of Daniel McStay, who booted four goals against the Hawks. Should McStay continue his purple patch, and more recognised stars Joe Daniher and Charlie Cameron begin to fire, the Lions may just give themselves a shot in September.
Dan McStay has been fantastic!#AFLHawksLions pic.twitter.com/6rOlpJ8nIN
— AFL (@AFL) August 1, 2021
To come
Pleasingly for Fagan, his side face a relatively straightforward run home with Fremantle (away), Collingwood (home) and West Coast (home) to come. One more win secures them sixth at worst; and with that, a home elimination final.
They start $1.53 favourites against the Dockers at Optus Stadium on Sunday evening.
(*Prices correct at 12pm Wednesday August 4)
