To celebrate the launch of Palmerbet’s AFL Same Game Multi product we’re taking a trip down memory lane, revisiting the 2009 Semi Final between Brisbane and the Western Bulldogs.
So Brisbane and the Western Bulldogs meet again in September. 7:20pm this Saturday night, the Gabba ready to rock.
The last time they faced off at the pointy end of the year was 12 years ago, at the exact same stage of the season. That night at the MCG, the Dogs prevailed at a canter. After booting the first four majors of the game, the Dogs maintained a handy buffer all evening and went on to win by 51 points.
So what did the markets look like that night? And how do they compare with those for Saturday night? First things first, unlike on that occasion 12 year ago, this year’s AFL Semi-Final is expected to be far closer…
Head-to-head
After finishing inside the Top 4 in 2009, the Dogs ($1.26 favourites) were expected to bounce back after a Qualifying Final loss to Geelong the week prior. Despite a rousing Elimination Final win over the Blues, Brisbane ($3.73) were heavy outsiders. And so it proved on the night.
This year, the shoe is on the other foot. Brisbane are the side coming off a Qualifying Final loss, and start as pre-match favourites with Palmerbet ($1.61). After their convincing Elimination Final win over Essendon in the wet, however, Luke Beveridge’s Bulldogs outfit are considered strong chances as underdog, currently $2.33. Perhaps it’s not surprising the markets are tighter than in 2009, especially when you consider Brisbane only overtook the Dogs on the ladder in the final round of the 2021 AFL season, just shading their opponent’s percentage.
Considered a Premiership hope all season before flagging in recent weeks, could the Dogs send a warning shot that they’re far from done with?
David King sees an opportunity for the Bulldogs against the Lions. pic.twitter.com/a4NUUMjl6n
— AFL Nation (@AFLNation) August 30, 2021
Line
As favourites back in 2009, the Dogs gave up as much as a 25.5-point head start.
This year, however, the Lions are at just -8.5.
To get 30 or more disposals
Unsurprisingly given their domination on the night back in 2009, the Bulldogs had four players rack up 30+ disposals. Ball magnet Matthew Boyd (36), club legend Daniel Giansiracusa (33), AFL Brownlow Medalist Adam Cooney (32) and stalwart Nathan Eagleton (30) all finished with good numbers. Only Luke Power (31) passed the mark for Brisbane.
This year, both clubs have a heavy favourite to reach the mark. For the Dogs, Jack Macrae ($1.33) is expected to reach 30 and for the Lions, 2020 Brownlow Medalist Lachie Neale ($1.62) is too. Fans might see value in Neale even hitting 35+ (currently $3.25 with Palmerbet) given his huge numbers in last week’s loss.
Despite his side going down tonight, Lachie Neale chalked up the most disposals EVER in finals history 👏
(Via @sirswampthing/Twitter) pic.twitter.com/JbzF1noBYe
— Triple M Footy (@triplemfooty) August 28, 2021
To score 3 or more goals
Four players kicked three or more goals that day. Lions spearheads Jonathan Brown and Daniel Bradshaw both bagged three, while the Dogs’ Mitch Hahn and Eagleton bagged four and three respectively. But could it be a younger cohort that hit that mark on Saturday night? Elimination Final revelation Cody Weightman is $4.00 to kick 3+ after his four-goal effort against the Dons.
"I’ve told him, 'Ignore that (the trolls) because you were dominant and you helped your team win the game of football'."
Lloydy reaches out to Weightman, how the Cats got 'spooked' and more in Access All Areas.
Watch now, thanks to @sportsbetcomau: https://t.co/PFV1I2MbiQ pic.twitter.com/Unj8FeVXIV
— AFL (@AFL) August 30, 2021
First Goal Scorer
Back in 2009, it was former Brownlow Medalist and Lions Premiership hero Jason Akermanis that kicked the first goal of the night. But by this stage of his career he’d moved on from Brisbane, and was in Dogs colours. If we’re honest, it’s unlikely Lions defender (and former Dog) Marcus Adams will replicate Aker’s club-swap-first-goal combo 12 years ago. His teammate Charlie Cameron may though, and starts as $9.00 favourite in that market.
Charlie Cameron kicks his second in five minutes 🔥
📝 BLOG: https://t.co/kg0z9t8xs4
🔢 MATCH CENTRE: https://t.co/WdsjZjVR6a
📺 WATCH #AFLDeesLions #AFLFinals: https://t.co/gwFHYadgNM pic.twitter.com/MBE25cSpUE— Fox Footy (@FOXFOOTY) August 28, 2021
(*Prices correct at 4pm Wednesday September 1)
BET NOW ON BRISBANE LIONS v WESTERN BULLDOGS:
