AFL Tips & Preview – Finals Week 1

Week 1 of the 2021 AFL Finals Series is unsurprisingly set up to be a cracker. Eight clubs will be cut down to six, as we officially hit crunch-time.

Port Adelaide v Geelong @ Adelaide Oval Friday 27th August, 19:50 (AEST)
Port Adelaide		Geelong
Pos	Player	Pos	Player
B	R.Burton, T.McKenzie, A.Aliir	B	J.Henry, L.Henderson, J.Bews
HB	M.Bergman, T.Jonas, D.Byrne-Jones	HB	M.O’Connor, M.Blicavs, T.Atkins
C	X.Duursma, O.Wines, D.Houston	C	S.Menegola, M.Duncan, I.Smith
HF	K.Amon, T.Marshall, Z.Butters	HF	S.Simpson, J.Cameron, G.Rohan
F	R.Gray, C.Dixon, C.Rozee	F	B.Close, T.Hawkins, G.Miers
FOL	S.Lycett, T.Boak, W.Drew	FOL	R.Stanley, J.Selwood, P.Dangerfield
I/C	O.Fantasia, P.Ladhams, R.Bonner, S.Motlop	I/C	J.Kolodjashnij, B.Parfitt, C.Guthrie, L.Dahlhaus

History: Played 36: Port Adelaide 11 v Geelong 24 (1 draw)

Last Meeting: AFL Round 13, 2021: Port Adelaide (91) def by Geelong (112)

Final Thoughts: Given the Power have only been in the national competition since 1997, it’s quite staggering that this is the FIFTH time these two clubs are facing off in an AFL Finals series. Geelong have the ultimate bragging rights — a 119-point humbling in the 2007 Grand Final, which remains a VFL/AFL record. But the Power have the recent bragging rights, claiming victory in last year’s qualifying final at the same ground they’ll face off on Friday night.

The Cats’ recent record in qualifying finals is nothing short of disastrous, losing five of their last six.  And there’s even more pressure on them this year; after foregoing young talent for experience in last year’s trade period, the Cats are smack-bang in the middle of their premiership window. They remain second-favourites for the flag at $4.20 with Palmerbet, behind Melbourne at $3.75. Midfielder Mitch Duncan returns in a big selection move.

The sentiment is similar for Ken Hinkley. After finishing as minor premiers in 2020 yet failing to make the Grand Final, the know this is their best shot at flag glory since that fateful day in 2007. They’ll be sweating on the fitness of Mitch Georgiades.

Best Bet:

• Margin: Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.20

Same Game Multi:

• H2H: Port Adelaide
• Any Time Goal Scorer: Robbie Gray
• Total Points: Over 149.5
• Odds: $4.07

Sydney Swans v GWS Giants @ UTAS Stadium Saturday 28th August, 15:20 (AEST)
Sydney		GWS
Pos	Player	Pos	Player
B	H.Cunningham, L.Melican, D.Rampe	B	J.Stein, S.Taylor, I.Cumming
HB	J.Lloyd, T.McCartin, J.McInerney	HB	L.Ash, N.Haynes, L.Whitfield
C	J.Dawson, G.Hewett, I.Heeney	C	J.Kelly, S.Coniglio, H.Perryman
HF	W.Hayward, H.McLean, E.Gulden	HF	T.Taranto, H.Himmelberg, T.Greene
F	T.Papley, L.Franklin, S.Wicks	F	Z.Sproule, J.Hogan, M.de Boer
FOL	T.Hickey, L.Parker, J.Rowbottom	FOL	S.Mumford, J.Hopper, C.Ward
I/C	C.O’Riordan, C.Warner, O.Florent, J.Bell	I/C	S.Reid, D.Lloyd, T.Green, C.Idun

History: Played 21: Sydney 13 v GWS Giants 8

Last Meeting: AFL Round 18, 2021: GWS Giants (72) def by Sydney Swans (98)

Final Thoughts: While the Swans maintain a favourable 13-8 head-to-head record against their crosstown rivals, the ‘Finals’ column would undeniably sting. Two games, two (comfortable) losses. Back in 2016 it was a 36-point qualifying final loss despite starting $1.50 favourites. Then in 2018 — the last time John Longmire’s men qualified for September action — it was a 49-point humbling, kicking just four goals for the match.

And while they defeated the Giants as recently as Round 18, the unfavourable record at this time of the year would be front of mind. That clash, just over a month ago, saw the Bloods gave up a six-goal lead early and came storming home. Giving up an early lead has been relatively commonplace for the Swans in recent months. Prior to straightforward wins over Gold Coast and North Melbourne in the last fortnight, Longmire’s men were down at quarter time in each of their previous four games. If they’re to go deep in September they’ll need to nip this in the bud. The Giants, meanwhile, have hit form at the exact right time. And with a host of big names back, will back themselves to go deep this AFL Finals Series.

Best Bet:

• Line: Sydney -7.5 @ $1.90

Same Game Multi:

• Line: Sydney -7.5
• Any Time Goal Scorer: Luke Parker
• Total Points: Under 155.5
• Odds: $6.36

Melbourne v Brisbane Lions @ Adelaide Oval Saturday 28th August, 19:30 (AEST)
Melbourne		Brisbane Lions
Pos	Player	Pos	Player
B	T.Rivers, S.May, H.Petty	B	D.Gardiner, H.Andrews, B.Starcevich
HB	J.Bowey, J.Lever, C.Salem	HB	G.Birchall, M.Adams, D.Rich
C	A.Brayshaw, C.Petracca, E.Langdon	C	H.McCluggage, Z.Bailey, J.Berry
HF	C.Spargo, T.McDonald, J.Viney	HF	L.McCarthy, D.McStay, D.Zorko
F	A.Neal-Bullen, B.Brown, B.Fritsch	F	N.Cockatoo, J.Daniher, C.Cameron
FOL	M.Gawn, C.Oliver, K.Pickett	FOL	O.McInerney, J.Lyons, L.Neale
I/C	J.Harmes, L.Jackson, J.Smith, T.Sparrow	I/C	M.Robinson, K.Coleman, J.Prior, T.Fullarton

History: Played 48: Melbourne 26 v Brisbane Lions 22

Last Meeting: AFL Round 12, 2021: Melbourne (97) def Brisbane Lions (75)

Final Thoughts: Melbourne are minor premiers for the first time since 1964. Whisper it, but it’s also the year of their last flag. For the first time in recent memory, the Dees go into an AFL Finals series as premiership favourites, currently $3.75 with Palmerbet. And it’s not hard to see why. Simon Goodwin has his side humming at the right time of the year. The ‘buy-in’ team defence is working, and there’s little doubt they have the attributes to delivery September glory. However, whether they can stand up mentally is another thing altogether. Melbourne players are all too aware of the pressure to win for success-starved fans. Their raw attributes are unquestioned, but whether they can live up to the hype is one of this Finals Series’ biggest questions. As one player said this week, their season “starts now”.

For the Lions, Chris Fagan similarly had his side peaking at the right time. Brisbane enter the Finals Series after comprehensive wins over Fremantle, Collingwood and West Coast — however they haven’t been tested by a side of Melbourne’e calibre for some time. When they last faced off they were completely overrun by Melbourne in the second half. Harris Andrews and Mitch Robinson should both return.

Best Bet:

• Line: Melbourne -5.5 @ $1.90

Same Game Multi:

• Line: Melbourne -5.5
• Any Time Goal Scorer: Zac Bailey
• Total Points: Under 153.5
• Odds: $4.91

Western Bulldogs v Essendon @ UTAS Stadium Sunday 29th August, 15:20 (AEST)
Western Bulldogs		Essendon
Pos	Player	Pos	Player
B	T.Duryea, A.Keath, B.Williams	B	M.Redman, J.Laverde, T.Cutler
HB	C.Daniel, Z.Cordy, B.Dale	HB	D.Heppell, J.Ridley, N.Hind
C	A.Treloar, J.Dunkley, L.Hunter	C	A.McGrath, Z.Merrett, A.Waterman
HF	L.Vandermeer, A.Naughton, B.Smith	HF	W.Snelling, A.Francis, A.Perkins
F	T.Liberatore, T.English, C.Weightman	F	J.Stringer, P.Wright, D.Smith
FOL	Le.Young, J.Macrae, M.Bontempelli	FOL	S.Draper, D.Parish, D.Shiel
I/C (from)	J.Schache, A.Scott, J.Johannisen, R.Smith, R.Gardner, R.West, M.Hannan, E.Wood	I/C (from)	J.Stewart, D.Clarke, M.Guelfi, N.Cox, S.Durham, J.Caldwell, A.Phillips, M.Gleeson

 

History: Played 163: Western Bulldogs 66 v Essendon 95 (2 draws)

Last Meeting: AFL Round 21, 2021: Western Bulldogs (84) def by Essendon (97)

Final Thoughts: Three weeks ago it seemed inconceivable that the Western Bulldogs would miss out on a Top 4 spot. Atop the AFL ladder, even a few speed-humps would see them earning the double-chance. However instead of speed-humps they hit a brick wall, and now find themselves one poor performance away from an early exit in a season that promised so much. At one stage $4.20 flag favourites, Luke Beveridge’s men are fading fast, now out to $10. In fact, they became just the fifth side in VFL/AFL history to go 0-3 after beginning their final three games on top of the ladder. Yet Beveridge is now staring down the barrel of a third-straight elimination final exit, something that would be hard to cop for Doggies fans.

They face an in-form Essendon side who knocked them off just three weeks ago — a result that initiated the slide. However prior to that, the Dogs had won the previous six clashes in a row, including two by over 85 points. While they start as $2.47 outsiders with Palmerbet, Bombers fans know this is the best chance of breaking a 17-year drought without a finals win. Since 2004, they’ve lost five-straight finals in a row — four of them by 55+ points. Given their form, at the very least it’s likely to be competitive. And if they bring a similar heat that they did in Round 21, the Dogs have a very good reason to be worried.

Best Bet:

• H2H: Essendon @ $2.47

Same Game Multi:

• H2H: Essendon
• Any Time Goal Scorer: Marcus Bontempelli
• Total Points: Under 151.5
• Odds: $6.00